I believe that it could be an edge, but I will need to develop a backtest to confirm. Without testing, I suspect that this is a form of momentum that will only work in highly liquid factors, not alphas of individual stocks that tend to be mean reverting on most timescales. I expect that the support and resistance levels identified by the local minima of the short SMA are not very important and this aspect could be replaced by many other measures of relative value and work just as well. Again, definitely appreciate you sharing and I will give a look to that PDF you mentioned. Cheers
It's OK, you don't need to prove it to me. I already believe you that it can be an edge. You gave more proof than most on this forum ever would. I just need to create a backtest to confirm. What stocks I trade - I don't trade any specific tickers, I run an automated system that scans all stocks and trades a few hundred tickers on any given day. I completely hedge out the market and most industry factors unless I have an industry specific edge that day.
Understood. I don't think any one can automate intraday breakout trading. So much of it is feel for momentum and experience with T&S and slope of average, etc. Sometimes I take profits early and look the fool and sometimes I take them early and look like a genius. Sometimes I hold for the bigger move and get lots of points. More often I end up scratching a trade because the follow through is just not there. You are correct that most people cannot prove that they make money. Many of the people selling trader training either trade demo or not at all. The training industry is full of seedy cheats trying to prey on desperate traders losing money. Its all on a clean chart in front of us. If its complicated it will not work. Once I cleaned up my charts and started observing I began to make money. I am always willing to help struggling traders. No charge.