It just seems odd that it is literally every market around the globe that shows this. If these things are correlated then you would think one has to be the chicken and the other the egg. NinjaTrader doesn't like how I am converting the files into NT formatted files. Once I get this figured out I can hopefully expand these tests to some other instruments.
I would like to graph the daytime gains against the nighttime gains and see if there is any correlation there. Without testing it, my prediction is that there would be a little bit of a "smile". Days where there are huge down days the overnight has a better chance of gapping up, and days where there are huge up day the overnight would have higher chance of gapping up as well, with that in-between being close to random up/down. Another way I want to slice it is returns by day of the week. That may reveal interesting correlations as well. I just want to throw my guesses out here as a bit of fun before I see what the data shows. Just waiting on NinjaTrader tech support...
Seems big firm stuff to create studies for lead/lag correlations (autocorr?) on Asian markets to European markets to US markets across multiple assets to find chicken and egg relationships.
My, my, we have just closed a pretty decent 10 points cash upgap. So guys, if we end up 10+ you sure won't claim it as an overnight achievement, right?
If you are asking me, from the title of this thread. As to the contrary, I claim only ~15% of all gains are due to overnight movements, and their confusion comes from misinterpreting data.
%% Yes , partly+ your headline is wrong,100% wrong.[Of course since my data shows start of QQQ in 1999, not exactly 25 years,LOL. Congrats on admitting you were wrong@ last on page 2.] Actually , Kman21 your headline could be right on DOW/DIA; like the founder of IBD noted ''its easier to manipulate.'' But i seldom keep up with DOW/DIA, so i dont know.Thanks,