All market gains since 1993 have occurred after hours

Discussion in 'Trading' started by krugman25, Apr 13, 2019.

  1. krugman25


    I read an interesting article that said all market gains have occurred after hours since 1993. If you exclude after hours gains, the market is actually down. I find this completely fascinating.

    With that in mind it seems one could take advantage of price action in these two time windows. Something basic that comes to mind are opening bull call spreads at market close and closing at the open. That would help capture the overnight gains and protect from a major overnight selloff. On the flipside, it seems a theta capturing strategy that is opened at the open and closed at the closed would be optimal, since the market has basically been a sideways market for the last 20 years when looking at just open hours.

    Does anyone here already trade this phenomena or has studied this out in more detail?
    athlonmank8 and murray t turtle like this.
  2. Overnight


    If it were true, everyone would have done it. And how well did it work from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018?

    Red herring.
  3. krugman25


    As us data guys would say " It's the data, stupid". So my question to you is, in what way is the data wrong? Data is simply data, and this wasn't an opinion piece.

    Also, I need to make a corrrection from my first post. Daytime gains have been a net negative for the last 25 years, not 20.
    Timetwister and murray t turtle like this.
  4. clacy


    Could be the day trader effect. I would think day traders are far more likely to be short than people who hold overnight
  5. Overnight


    The data is wrong because the market is not down.
  6. krugman25


    That's the best you got? How did any long strategy work out for those 2 months.

    But Assuming you plan on trading for more than 2 months out of your life, if you start back in 1993, you would be up almost 600% with after hours only gains and down -4% with market hours only.

    The study was also tested on single name stocks and foreign markets and the results were the same.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2019
  7. Overnight


    Did you make money on it?
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. krugman25


    Did you read my original post?
    murray t turtle likes this.
  9. krugman25


    Ahh, the data is wrong... ooooook.

    Data says it is 10PM CST right now. Do you think that is a red herring as well?

    If you are going to deny facts (the data), then this question is clearly not for you.
    kenten likes this.
  10. Overnight


    Yes, and it is nonsensical.

    "If you exclude after hours gains, the market is actually down. I find this completely fascinating."

    Yer smoking something funny my friend. The market is down after hours, while it is up 300% over the past 2 years overall? And whether you believe or disbelieve the idea, have you made money on it?

    I believe that was my main question.
    #10     Apr 13, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.