All indicators are flashing extreme overbought conditions.....

jys78 · Jul 28, 2025 at 10:32 AM

nitrene said:
One of the funniest financial blogs I used to read was called Ponzi World and the subtitle was BTATFH. The name was meant as sarcasm since the author was a permabear. In his personal holdings he said to buy SH which was the short term t-bill ETF.

BTATFH == Buy The All Time Fucking High
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Over time, this approach (buying the highs, to be clear) would likely outperform most active traders.

LW_Millions · Jul 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM

cesfx said:
Why did you change your username?
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I didn't change my username.

The admin/Baron shortened it because it was too long. He said it was messing up the display on small devices. Strange. Everything looks fine to me and I only use a phone.

volpri · Jul 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM

S2007S said:
I guess during hot bull markets you can expect this ....but damn these indicators are simply red hottttt....what will happen is they will continue to get more extreme and everyone will keep holding out for more historic highs. Everyone will cheer for a third year in a row for 20% gains.

Shiller

The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 on July 27, 2025, was 38.5. It is currently 42.3% higher than the recent 20-year average of 27. The implied future annual return based on this Shiller PE is 1.9%.
The Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), is a valuation measure usually applied to broad stock market indexes like the S&P 500. It uses average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 38.5

This is significantly higher than the recent 20-year average of 27.
The recent 20-year low for the Shiller PE is 13.3.
The recent 20-year high is 38.6.
The high Shiller P/E suggests a lower expected future return on investments.
The S&P 500 is currently at 6388.64.The standard, or "regular," P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 29.5

Buffet indicator

Warren Buffett Indicator jumps to most expensive stock market valuation in history

US stock valuations hit record highs as the Buffett Indicator soars to 212% of GDP, surpassing the Dot-Com and 2008 peaks.
Berkshire Hathaway exits major financial positions, including Citigroup and Bank of America, signaling Buffett’s cautious stance.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records ahead of a key Fed meeting, with markets eyeing potential rate cuts later this year.

The US stock market’s current valuation has surpassed even the peaks seen during the Dot-Com Bubble and the 2008 Financial Crisis, according to the so-called “Warren Buffett Indicator.”

The metric compares the total market capitalization of US stocks to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which surged to 212%, its highest level in history

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ROFLMAO What happened to Trump destroying the economy? Now you say it is red hot. GDP highest level in history. The man ain't been president for a year yet. More greatness to come boys. Hold onto your hats! LOL

Nine_Ender · Jul 28, 2025 at 2:52 PM

volpri said:
ROFLMAO What happened to Trump destroying the economy? Now you say it is red hot. GDP highest level in history. The man ain't been president for a year yet. More greatness to come boys. Hold onto your hats! LOL
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Greatness ?

I'll bet that 2025 has worse numbers then 2024 on all of these items : market gain pct, unemployment, GDP gain pct, and govt deficit. Pretty much everything will be worse then under Biden when supposedly the economy was too weak for voters.

Go ahead, tell me which number will be better.

KINGOFSHORTS · Jul 28, 2025 at 4:18 PM

Sold the August 29 puts.

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All indicators are flashing extreme overbought conditions.....

jys78

LW_Millions

volpri

Nine_Ender

KINGOFSHORTS