There is no need to predict, just as there is no need to catch absolute extremes otherwise known as the best fills. Think like a predator, he does not try to kill every potential prey, instead the predator patiently waits for a clear low risk high probability signal and long and behold, reacts! TV
For those who have studied patterns, a good rule of thumb is check where price is relative to the open. If the channel has been forming most of the day 'below' the open, especially on a gap down, then the likelihood (substitute w/probability, chances, etc.) of it breaking down are much higher. A 'W' pattern with an upward reversal of a tight channel is a rare pattern and usually shows up when establishing bottoms. We're not even close to a bottom on this thing. I'm sticking to 5500-6000 on the Dow. See you then.