GTS, I am sorry but this does not prove your point. You are just stating. 'It will yeild out more profit." But there is nothing statistical which proves your example or even an example which proves it. Your are just stating it. it is like saying God exists without proving it. I am not trying to deny your claim, I just need to see your prove before I can take sides.
I'm not sure what more proof you could require. This has nothing to do with statistics, its simple math. Do you agree that the average of two numbers cannot be greater then the larger of the two numbers?
So would you say a trader banking 2 points all in/out is more advantageous than the other trader banking average of 5 points per contract all in/scaling out?
I don't think there is a need for that. I agree that in theory you are correct, but the problem for most is not being able to estimate an optimal exit point. And I agree that scaling out is inferior in comparison to not scaling out, but so what?
Do what makes you money guys, I was in a live chat room today showing how I trade. I scale in and scale out ....My main concern is to protect my capital. Remember take care of your trades and the money will take care of itself.
Yes, but are you perfect are you right 100% of the time. That is what I am indicating you can not be right 100% of the time. Thus lets say you win an average of 60% of the time. Then which one of the strategies will work. Yours or the other. Please elaborate...mathematically if you can if you can't I guess it will be alright.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from jack hershey: I like the 720 but I probably would be doing over 1000, though. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm asked: "what do you mean?" My thoughts on my prior answer: Its a 6 contract account. The move was 40 points showing. The a. 10 points is a miscalc on your part. So I took the 10 points as the range since I have watched your posting and how you comment on the markets. You can't trade ES and so you quit there you say. But you can do the DAX you say. So I traded the range over time; for me it was a set of traverses of the range. I do three traverses of range on average and I can squeeze more out by doing more than one trade per traverse. So three traverses of 10 points with 6 contracts is 720 and not optimum. By doing an odd number of trades on a traverse (you can only do odd numbers usually) I ran it up to 1000 an addition of four or five points per contract for 6 contracts. This thread may turn out to be about making money. A. was less than b. and b had a 40 point gain on three contracts. There was a lot of room to fiddle with the numbers. I didn't want to scare anyone with numbers too big. The example you gave was an unusual one so I did the same. My average of 4 points per contract per trade is probably too high for most traders. For me it is 39 contract-hours in the market per day. That is a money velocity of 25 points per hour or 1/2 a point per minute or 25 dollars per minute using the 1,000 points. Look at the market for ES. watch it for a minute and see the bar is more than two ticks tall. Look at each 1 minute bar for the day. There are 390 (405 actually) bars on ES. the volatility distribution is such that there are few 2 tick bars which is all I need to make 25 dollars a minute per contract. Lets say most people are not in the market 6 1/2 hours a day. That is because they do one of the 80 most popular edges and, in fact they may leave a given market because it is not possible. BNB was losing a 1,000 a day on 3 contracts he says and shows on prints that look like simulation to me. If not, he finished his trading life today. How many hours a day is an edge trader in the market. Roughly speaking very few. BNB did two worst trades of 100 contract-minutes and 4 contract-minutes; both lost over 500 dollars. He was losing at the rate of 10 dollars per minute per contract. He won more than he lost measured by trades and he just lost 1,110 dollars net on three contracts. the next day he did the same and wound up with a total account of 547 dollars. He was trading 3 contracts on 1500 dollars total. The above is an example of how fast someone opposite him was making what he was losing. His 10 dollars a minute loss on half losing trades is comarable to my 25 dollars a minute on optimum trading. A good trader is over twice as good in money velocity of a losing beginner. i replace edges with being in all of the time. I am also on the right side of the market all of the time. All my measures in my data sets are binary. that is, they are right or wrong no other possibility. I also take enough elements in a set to always have them confirming each other. All the time I have binary correct data in my sets. All of the time I am making money for two reasons: I am on the right side of the market and the price is moving all of the time. My example is 2 ticks per minute. Why would I scale in or out. All I do is change sides of the market all day long. When I have a data set that says "change" I obey in spades. When I have a data set that says "hold", I hold. I obey. You gave a 2 tick a minute example by my looking at it. Chose any other number of ticks a minute. then add to the 1,000 points or subtract from the 1,000 points the 6 contracts are doing. Some edge traders get their edges by looking at the markets. they bet on the set up when they see it. The set up has nothing to do with what follows the entry. They use stops in relation to target they try to hit. A percentage of people doing this fail. Another percentage are proving that by doing the same thing over and over they are going to get a different result. I can't rember what this is a definition of. It is either a miracle or insanity. I do not use setups. I do not do entries or exits. I never bet or use probabilities. I only use binary data which has two answers, one of which I see and the other is not there to see. there are only two conditions and I see one of them present at all times. Nothing I look at have any doubtful aspects about it. I do not scale. I do better than 2 ticks a minute per contract all day long with quite a few contracts. 720 is a low optimum and 1,000 is better and it is 2 ticks a minute money velocity. All two tick one minute bars in a row as the basis. See the bars stepping along. If they are taller than two ticks they can overlap as much as they want except for 2 ticks. Tall ones, short ones all in a money making path.