No, the reality is that Germany is terrified at the prospect of ANYONE leaving the eurozone. Why? They know anyone leaving means others will follow. If that happens the whole euro project collapses. In public, they have to show they don't care. In fact, presenting a hardline is the way to go. But internally they know they can't afford to let anyone go.
No, a few years ago Greece negociated financial help and agreed on all the conditions for this help. They were not obliged to accept this help, it was their free choice. German and the rest of Europe wants that these conditions, on which everybody freely agreed, should be respected. Now there is a new governement and Greeces does not want to respect what was agreed on. In that case the contract should be cancelled and Greece should pay back immediatelly all the money received. It is simple and logical. All Germany and the rest of Europe wants is that the agreement will be respected. Nobody is imposing anything, respect the agreement or stop it.
For over a year now, rumours go that the strong economies in Europe are already speaking about changing the actual system. The strong economies would be in 1 block, and the others (South of Europe) would be in another block. The strong ones with Euro's, the other ones with local currencies. Grexit might may be a good incentive to start this split. Don't bet on "they cannot afford to let anyone go", because the outcome fof the Greece problem might be completely different.
Oh eventually, they will have to let go and the euro will self destruct, you can count on that. However in politics, they like to do this thing called saving face...they can't bear to be wrong (they would make lousy traders). The markets will enforce reality on them in the end.
have we not laid out in detail over the past couple pages why that is not gonna happen? If Greece left the Eurozone there is no reason why Spain and Co would follow anytime soon. Please provide a credible line of reasoning if you disagree.
maybe in the distant future, but not before couple more high profile hedge funds will be swallowed up in the process. If you had ever put a single dime at where your mouth is you would have lost time and again. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-forex-hedgefunds-idUSBRE9BI0P720131219 (the single largest reason the fund went under was short bets on the euro)
Just empirical data. Whenever a country has left a currency union or a peg, another leaves within a year 80%+ of the time. Combine that with the fact that Spain and Italy have serious economic problems , the odds are even higher that they will leave as well. I reckon this will happen. Greece leaves the eurozone. It has a horrible recession for 6 months, maybe longer. But then it recovers. Other countries (Spain and Italy) still trapped in the eurozone nightmare see this. Their public vote out their corrupt govts. New govts in the spirit of Syriza are elected. They immediately, no need to consult Germany, exit the eurozone.
Here is the dream though....Germany fucks up economically once all these countries leave the eurozone...it cant cope with the strength of the new D-mark. Neighbours like Poland , Czech, Hungary decide that it is time for payback for the atrocities of ww2. They gang up and invade Germany. The german finance minister is thrown off the bundestag roof. The countries carve up germany and rule for the next thousand years. Sort of like the Reich, but not the one the nazis intended! haha!