He did not agree with you nor Tsingtao but voiced his own middle ground opinion. If you read others' posts carefully instead of wanting to nuke Berlin you would have noticed ;-)
the nuke option is a last resort in case germany decides it wants to start invading europe again, starting with greece this time rather than poland...we ain't going through that shit again!!
Right, now that's settled, can we have some intelligent discussion on what might happen? Imho, the best thing is for greece to just say they have had enough, germany to say that they have had enough, and let greece default and exit the eurozone. Of course then someone else within a year will follow suit, maybe italy, and then the euro is finished. It was never going to work anyway, they just managed to keep going for 20 yrs, which is not that long in the grand schema of things. Greece can print currency and inflate and chill out on the beach with some ouzo, german bankers would have a bloody nose, but they will survive, they will be bailed out by mrs merkel - life will go on. Atm, it is pure zombieland in europe, sooner the euro is destroyed, the better for ALL.
I actually agree w/volpunter on many of his/her points. It's hard to not blame the Greeks for persistently taking a piss for years and years. I also happen to agree with Tsing somewhat, in a sense that maybe the Eurocrats should have cut the cord a long time ago, but, on the other hand, they had to offer Greece the same chances that were offered to Ireland and Portugal. At the same time, they had to make sure to enforce the conditions, to make sure that Greece serves as an example. Let's face it, the seeds of everything happening now were sown a long time ago and both the Eurocrats and the Greeks have nobody but themselves to blame for their current predicament. Milton Friedman, among others, talked about these issues in the early 90s. In this conflict, I have very little sympathy for either side.
I agree with most of your points. I guess the only point I would take a tougher stance on is towards Greece's lack of truthfulness and honesty. Most other European countries have by far not cheated to the extent Greece has. Bending numbers to some extent is something that should be within the allowable bandwidth, after all Europe is more a political construct than anything else. Even France has violated the bandwidth criteria several times and they were excused. (I am not sure Germany did or not, I would have to check). But here comes the difference: Other European nations have gotten their act together even after having for limited time violated certain economic limits. They have worked towards getting back in line with agreed principles and metrics. Even Spain now suffers from very similar youth unemployment than Greece does but the attitude towards battling it out is an entirely different one than Greece. Greece employs the "fuck you attitude" while other nations in difficulties apply the "let's work hard and show that we try our best hoping others see our efforts and continue supporting us" (at least for the time being). Very different approach towards those who bailed you out, would you not agree? And yes, the European experiment as it stands may ultimately fail, would have to be significantly revised to stand a chance. But so does the American experiment towards "let's squeeze the last dime out of our consumers, allow our consumers in turn to lever up on debt, let our institutions lever up on debt till they choke, let us almost entirely rely on the faith and trust of foreigners in our nation". Many important changes, that have originally not been factored in, have entered this equation such as the dependence on China for manufacturing (unless the companies want to re-base and lose competitively due to higher manufacturing cost) and the dependence on China by American consumers. This may go well for some time but long-term it stands on as shaky grounds as many other "experiments" globally. We all experiment more or less from a long-term perspective. And in real life nobody has the luxury of going back and doing things differently. Let's not forget that the European union was originally formed to lower the chances for another large military conflict within Europe and to stand a fighting chance against the communist aggressor Russia. I would say for those reasons alone Europe should be praised and the results are worth the price. Or would anyone categorize Europe in the same group as Asia, the Middle East, or Africa when it comes to political stability, the ability for businesses to plan well into the future, a reliable legal framework and a strong trade negotiation partner? But for all that to work, economically or politically, you need members that can trust and rely on each other. Greece has broken this trust and showed its stinky middle finger and for that reason it is not to be trusted anymore. Time has come to cut ties, I very much agree with this. But I am afraid some socialist European parliament members find yet more self-serving reasons to keep Greece afloat.
Well, ain't this thread really about bonding with fellow traders while looking for constructive solutions to Europe ailments ?
Watch out for France, it has more bombs than UK, it's been known for befriending germany during tense times and for most of the populace there, the channel could change into wide open seas, they wouldn't start to care.
Cynicism aside, the only constructive solutions I have so far seen was to oust Greece and Greeks for what it/they really is/are, pull the plug, eat the loss, and move on without Greece. Risk obviously is that other nations would follow suit, get-out-of-jail-free-card. But it would buy Europe time and after they have wasted all their precious time from 2 years ago maybe some would learn the lesson now and sense the urgency. Arguing that France or Italy are in such bad shape that they might be on the hook soon after is not based on facts and numbers. Plus if it really comes to such, Germany can then decide to leave the Euro itself. But for now Germany is way too invested, mentally, in the EMU to pull out at this time. The other alternatives, offered, such as digging out WWII issues, liking Merkel to Hitler and all the other threats, intimidations towards Germany and other European nations did not seem more feasible. Nor musing about whether the EU originally was a good idea or not. Pragmatism gentlemen, not TsingTao-like text book semantics.
* ECB OFFICIALS ARE PREPARING FOR GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE - GERMAN MAGAZINE SPIEGEL* * Greek PM Tsipras says he is "certain" that his request for 6month extension with conditions will be accepted* (LOL)
Indeed, hence in the interest of making sure that the European project survives, it may actually be optimal to let Greece go, as a way of making an example. However, even if that were to happen, the flaws of the European project and the lack of foresight that the Eurocrats have persistently demonstrated may be to much.