In the Laconia incident, it was the Americans who blew the U Boat, which was carrying British survivors, to pieces...it was not the British.
Russia never learned from the mistakes of its past. Soviet Union failed and the newest ambitions to form an empire will fail as well. They always attempt to rule by brute force, it does not work as well in the 21st century (hopefully). The reality is, people in the Baltics and possibly in Poland don't really have faith in Western Europe but rather rely on US for any defensive needs. The mentality is that western Europe is like an old man who just wants to relax in his retirement and doesn't care the least what happens next door as long as he is comfortable. Greece is just another reason for a divide. Petty disagreements always flare up in Europe when the situation gets complicated. Russia, a ridiculously united "federation" (more like Moscowistan) will take advantage of this.
this is the perhaps the most unproductive thread on the forum. Started out well (well, just the OP's first post!) then descended into chaos with volpunter going on his racially fuelled tirade. However, i accept i may have said stuff which was not "on" either. Apols for any offence i may have given. I'm out now.
don't let the door hit ya. I hope you learned a thing or two about econ 101. Just remember and repeat: "Supply and demand, supply and demand" P.S.: Probably the only racially loaded term I used was "savages" referring to the broad Greek public. Everything else I talked about races was a reflection of mere fact. And hey, next time you want to keep a thread on topic, maybe you want to try not to dig 70+ years deep down because the stuff that surfaces makes for a broader context...hard to get away without.
Greek Negotiations and Philosophical Questions Three interesting philosophical questions have arisen this evening in regards to Greek negotiations. The three questions I ask at the bottom of this post are based on statements made by a global foreign exchange strategy chief at UniCredit bank and two negotiation demands by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. I highlighted in red and italics the source of my questions. Stop at the questions and think about your answers before reading further. Greece Rift Wider Than Expected As an 11th hour meeting between Greece and creditors takes place on Monday. But a larger than expected Gap Still Yawns Between the Parties. Weekend talks uncovered a bigger-than-expected gap between the two sides, setting up a difficult stand-off between Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and his eurozone counterparts when they meet on Monday night. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, is determined that Athens should stick to its rescue programme as a condition of further financial assistance. Dogged resistance to such demands from Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, has seen his poll standing soar at home, with thousands taking to the streets on Sunday in a support rally. Panagiotis Lafazanis, leader of Syriza’s far-left faction, adopted a less-emollient tone, saying he would not allow his party’s economic plans to be “chopped up, subdivided or split into good and bad”. “If our so-called partners insist on an extension of the current programme in one form or another — the sinful memorandum — there won’t be an agreement,” he said on Sunday. Germany wants Greece to stay in the eurozone, but not at any price. “If we go deeper into the [debt] discount debate, there will be no more reforms in Europe,” said a senior German official. “There will be joyful celebrations in the Elysée and probably in Rome, too, if we go down this path.” Ahead of Monday’s meeting, Vasileios Gkionakis, global foreign exchange strategy chief at UniCredit bank, wrote to clients: “I think it is fair to say that . . . the irresistible force will be meeting the immovable object.” Germany and other creditors have agreed that the three organisations supervising the bailout programme — the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank — will no longer be called “the troika”, in a nod to Greek demands. But Berlin insists the same bodies will continue as Greece’s watchdog, even if renamed “the institutions”. Berlin is also open to easing Greece’s fiscal straitjacket. Athens wants a reduction in the proposed fiscal surplus from 4.5 per cent to around 1.5 per cent. In Berlin’s view, around 3 per cent might be possible. "Dignity Not Negotiable" Reuters reports Greece, Confident Sticks to No-Austerity Pledge Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told Germany's Stern magazine that Athens needed time to implement its reforms and shake off the mismanagement of the past. "I expect difficult negotiations; nevertheless I am full of confidence," he said. "I promise you: Greece will then, in six months' time, be a completely different country." "The irresistible force will be meeting the immovable object," Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit, wrote in a note. Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis showed no sign that Greece was backing off on its core demand. "The Greek government is determined to stick to its commitment towards the public ... and not continue a program that has the characteristics of the previous bailout agreement," he told Greece's Skai television. He later said: "The Greek people have made it clear that their dignity is non-negotiable. We are continuing the negotiations with the popular mandate in our hearts and in our minds." Some of the problems facing the Eurogroup are semantic. The Greeks, for example, will not countenance anything that smacks of an "extension" to the old bailout, preferring something new called a "bridge" agreement. Wave of Anger This is political. Tsipras rode into power on a wave of anti-austerity and anti-bailout anger last month and would have a hard time explaining a row-back so soon. Thousands of Greeks massed outside parliament in Athens on Sunday to back his strategy. But even a cosmetic change of labels could have practical consequences. An "extension" may not require many national ratifications unless it involves additional financial commitments from euro zone governments. Any new bailout program, on the other hand, might require several national parliamentary ratifications and could also bring Germany's Constitutional Court into play. Crunch Time and Domestic Rallies Bloomberg reports Greece Faces Crunch Talks After Show of Domestic Support Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis leads a Greek government delegation back to Brussels Monday buoyed by a demonstration of support in front of Parliament in central Athens the previous evening that police put at more than 20,000 people. His goal is to secure a bridge accord that allows Greece the time and financial space to negotiate a post-bailout era. “The stakes are high, but I doubt tonight is much more than theatrics,” Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said in an e-mail. “The real showdown will come much later.” While fellow euro-area countries will “of course” discuss Greece’s debt levels, “it is out of the question to cancel the debt, we can discuss its maturity,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, told Europe 1 radio Sunday. While Tsipras’s Syriza-led government has no natural political allies around the table on Monday, his support at home remains solid. Sixty-one percent of 1,015 Greek people polled by Kapa Research for To Vima newspaper this weekend said they approved of the government’s approach. Philosophical Questions Does "Troika" by any other name stink as bad? Is there any meaningful difference between "bridge" and "extension"? What happens when "the irresistible force meets the immovable object"? Think carefully especially about question number three before reading further. There is a correct answer to question number three that will likely surprise some. Philosophical Answers Beauty is in the nose of the beholder. But logically, the answer is yes. No. The question is ridiculous. In fact, it's impossible. By definition if there is such a thing as an "irresistible force" then by definition, there cannot be an "immovable object". Likewise, if there exists an "immovable object" then by definition there cannot be a an "irresistible force". The "irresistible force vs. immovable object" analogy by Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit, is logically ridiculous. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
My two points to the above Mish article: Absolutely. Any renegotiation with Greece will result in problems with Spain, Italy, etc...down the road. I'm not sure France comes into it just yet, but eventually. Tsipras is on drugs if he thinks six months Greece will be different under any circumstances whatsoever.
Yanis' full Op-Ed below, as it appears in the New York Times: Yanis Varoufakis: No Time for Games in Europe I am writing this piece on the margins of a crucial negotiation with my country’s creditors — a negotiation the result of which may mark a generation, and even prove a turning point for Europe’s unfolding experiment with monetary union. Game theorists analyze negotiations as if they were split-a-pie games involving selfish players. Because I spent many years during my previous life as an academic researching game theory, some commentators rushed to presume that as Greece’s new finance minister I was busily devising bluffs, stratagems and outside options, struggling to improve upon a weak hand. Nothing could be further from the truth. If anything, my game-theory background convinced me that it would be pure folly to think of the current deliberations between Greece and our partners as a bargaining game to be won or lost via bluffs and tactical subterfuge. The trouble with game theory, as I used to tell my students, is that it takes for granted the players’ motives. In poker or blackjack this assumption is unproblematic. But in the current deliberations between our European partners and Greece’s new government, the whole point is to forge new motives. To fashion a fresh mind-set that transcends national divides, dissolves the creditor-debtor distinction in favor of a pan-European perspective, and places the common European good above petty politics, dogma that proves toxic if universalized, and an us-versus-them mind-set. As finance minister of a small, fiscally stressed nation lacking its own central bank and seen by many of our partners as a problem debtor, I am convinced that we have one option only: to shun any temptation to treat this pivotal moment as an experiment in strategizing and, instead, to present honestly the facts concerning Greece’s social economy, table our proposals for regrowing Greece, explain why these are in Europe’s interest, and reveal the red lines beyond which logic and duty prevent us from going. The great difference between this government and previous Greek governments is twofold: We are determined to clash with mighty vested interests in order to reboot Greece and gain our partners’ trust. We are also determined not to be treated as a debt colony that should suffer what it must. The principle of the greatest austerity for the most depressed economy would be quaint if it did not cause so much unnecessary suffering. I am often asked: What if the only way you can secure funding is to cross your red lines and accept measures that you consider to be part of the problem, rather than of its solution? Faithful to the principle that I have no right to bluff, my answer is: The lines that we have presented as red will not be crossed. Otherwise, they would not be truly red, but merely a bluff. But what if this brings your people much pain? I am asked. Surely you must be bluffing. The problem with this line of argument is that it presumes, along with game theory, that we live in a tyranny of consequences. That there are no circumstances when we must do what is right not as a strategy but simply because it is ... right. Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story Against such cynicism the new Greek government will innovate. We shall desist, whatever the consequences, from deals that are wrong for Greece and wrong for Europe. The “extend and pretend” game that began after Greece’s public debt became unserviceable in 2010 will end. No more loans — not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans, help the middle class get back on its feet and address the hideous humanitarian crisis. No more “reform” programs that target poor pensioners and family-owned pharmacies while leaving large-scale corruption untouched. Our government is not asking our partners for a way out of repaying our debts. We are asking for a few months of financial stability that will allow us to embark upon the task of reforms that the broad Greek population can own and support, so we can bring back growth and end our inability to pay our dues. One may think that this retreat from game theory is motivated by some radical-left agenda. Not so. The major influence here is Immanuel Kant, the German philosopher who taught us that the rational and the free escape the empire of expediency by doing what is right. How do we know that our modest policy agenda, which constitutes our red line, is right in Kant’s terms? We know by looking into the eyes of the hungry in the streets of our cities or contemplating our stressed middle class, or considering the interests of hard-working people in every European village and city within our monetary union. After all, Europe will only regain its soul when it regains the people’s trust by putting their interests center-stage. And now we sit back and prepare for all sorts of red lines to be crossed.
Not sure the cartoon is really helpful to fruitful discussions. More indicative of how Greek emotion may be clouding the issue.... Whether this is more economic sabre-rattling or not, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is not making any Greek friends this morning. During a radio interview on Deutschlandfunk, Schaeuble exclaimed that he was against a deal "just for the sake of a compromise," and lashed out that "I feel sorry for the Greeks. The new Greek government behaves irresponsible." As Reuters reports, Schaeuble remains "very sceptical" and nobody wants to give Greece any more money "without guarantees," which is odd because within the last year - trend-chasing asset managers had appeared willing to throw good money after bad at it until now. *SCHAEUBLE: GREEK GOVERNMENT HASN'T MOVED *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREEK PROGRAM MUST BE FULFILLED SCHAEUBLE SAYS: WHAT I HEARD SO FAR DIDN'T STRENGTHEN MY OPTIMISM ABOUT GREECE As Reuters reports, Asked if the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers would find a solution for Greece's debt problems, Schaeuble told Deutschlandfunk: "From what I've heard about the technical talks over the weekend, I'm very sceptical, but we will get a report today and then we'll see." Schaeuble said Germany did not want Greece ot leave the euro zone, but that the new government in Athens had to fulfil the core conditions of its bailout programme and that it was not about finding a compromise deal "just for the sake of a compromise". "The problem is that Greece has lived beyond its means for a long time and that nobody wants to give Greece money anymore without guarantees," Schaeuble said, noting that Athens had to stick to agreed reforms to become competitive. Schaeuble added that the new Greek government was behaving "quite irresponsibly" right now and that it was no help to insult others who have supported the country in the past. Given this sentiment it is hardly surprising that... A Greek leftist newspaper close to the ruling party in Athens published a cartoon last week which showed Schaeuble in a Nazi uniform. He is quoted saying "we insist on soap from your fat" and "we are discussing fertilizer from your ashes", references to the fate of Jews in Nazi death camps. * * * And finally, Schaeuble leaves us with this... "as long as the Greek government doesn't want a programme I don't have to think about options." So to summarize where we stand - Greece "isn't bluffing" and "won't cross red lines" ... and the rest of Europe is saying forget about it then. Full DeutschlandFunk Radio interview here