Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Tsing Tao, Jan 29, 2015.

  1. you are almost a cute character. But hey, listen, this is what I will do: I will write the Troika a letter (yes, by hand and in ink) and politely request them to apologize to a certain anonymous user at an anonymous user forum called ELITE-trader for having been guilty of deception. I will let them know that such user does not engage in word plays and that he does not feel deceived but he feels Toika is guilty of deception.

    Thanks for the entertainment you hilarious bloke.

     
    #1121     Apr 23, 2015
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    OOk...whatever that means :)
     
    #1122     Apr 23, 2015
  3. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    No worries! Glad I could offer you at least half the entertainment you've brought me!
     
    #1123     Apr 23, 2015
    volpunter likes this.
  4. #1124     May 1, 2015
  5. feel free to translate the following. The German president is a representative figure, not one that has any power, neither politically nor via legislation. The stance of the German parliament and chancellor is solid and has not changed at all:

    Gauck sagte, als Bundespräsident vertrete er zwar keine andere Rechtsauffassung als die Bundesregierung, die Reparationen mit Verweis auf den sogenannten Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag vor der Wiedervereinigung Deutschlands ablehnt. Dennoch verfolge er mit Interesse die Diskussion über unterschiedliche Vorschläge, dem Bedürfnis vieler Griechen nach einer Art Wiedergutmachung gerecht zu werden.

    Here an explanation what the "Zwei-Plus-Vier-Vertrag" represents:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany

    There will be no further forced reparations to anyone, every last claim on Germany's sovereignty has been renounced via the signature of the 4 powers before Germany's re-unification. If Germany decides to make any further payments to a single Jew or World War II victim then it will be out of volition and good will. No law court in the world can force Germany anymore to make reparations. This book is closed into eternity. Legally this is 100% solid and well accepted by every nation in the world. Of course individuals may debate this but law and agreements are in place to safeguard against certain money thirsty and greedy individuals and groups who just cannot get enough.

    I hope this answers your concerns and worries.

    Have a pleasant weekend.

     
    #1125     May 1, 2015
  6. I am quite aware of the German system, and that this is not the same as Merkel making the statement.

    Nevertheless, the fact remains that the German Head of State has come out in favour.

    No concerns or worries, the legal positions and justifications of both sides have been posted here if memory serves, just pleasantly surprised to read of it.

    Enjoy your weekend too.
     
    #1126     May 1, 2015
  7. Did I forget to mention that Greece fully accepted and respected the "Two-Plus-Four-Treaty/Agreement" ? In this agreement as you can research yourself Germany rid itself of any and every demands regarding further reparations. Every nation fully accepted and respected that agreement. The legal side is therefore 100% clarified and does not allow any room for further interpretation or debate.

    Of course, there are populist elements, among others, American Jewish groups and Greece, which keep on believing they are entitled to more than the many millions of USD they received from Germany. Germany can be very relaxed about such populist demands given the legal side is absolutely solid.

    Cheers.

    P.S.: The following is maybe one of the best researched articles on this topic I have so far come across. It keeps everything in context and sheds light at the issue from different perspectives, but it comes to the very same conclusion in that Germany legally does not have any further obligations regarding demands for WWII reparations:
    http://www.welt.de/geschichte/article138302090/Griechenland-kann-Deutschland-nicht-verklagen.html

     
    #1127     May 1, 2015
  8. imho, it does not matter what has been posted here. It matters what the legal facts are. And they are on the table which every nation agreed to, Greece's government fully recognized and respected the 1990 treaty and with it the forfeiture of any further demands even by the Greek government or its citizens.

    But I am pleasantly surprised you are more informed about German politics than most others on this thread. A lot of false information is spread on this thread, most by someone who keeps on posting German hate propaganda via posting news clippings.

     
    #1128     May 1, 2015
  9. You get so excited when in reality this is all a game. Greece is hard pressed and in a negotiation, so the reparations issue comes up. If the current situation is resolved to the satisfaction of all parties, reparations will be put back in the store-room temporarily, in the same way Korea does not talk about the comfort women issue every day, but dusts it off and uses it when needed.

    I actually have very little sympathy for any of the parties, and only one regret, if it can be called that.

    The bailout was a bank bailout dressed up as a Greece bailout. The austerity terms requiring a primary budget surplus of 4.5% of GDP are pretty questionable, given that only two OECD countries have achieved anything like that, one being Norway which is resource rich. Reminds me of all those sub-prime mortgages given to people who did not even have the income necessary to repay the loans.

    Greece cooked the books to meet the criteria for accession, cooked the books again to meet deficit requirements (in good company with Italy), and after all that, they get a bailout? The only reason I can think of is the political will to keep the EU intact was greater than any concerns about the lack of good sense in doing so. If you and I were bums like that, there is not a bank in the world that would lend us even $10.

    The only regret I have is that Greece did not exit the EU when the bailout was first an issue. At that time there would have been a massive market over-reaction and my funds still parked in cash could have been invested at dirt cheap prices, instead of sitting in the bank collecting interest at rates below even the official inflation rate that nobody believes is accurate.
     
    #1129     May 2, 2015
  10. a) Fortunately EU policy makers are not motivated by their investment portfolios in the same way you are. You can sit back and relax, as you have no decision making power and neither do I.

    b) EU policy makers and ECB had to consider the full picture and at that time they were confronted with the dire consequences would Greece have been allowed to go bankrupt. So what was their best move? It was to stabilize the country via payments so that Greece could meet its obligations that it was not able to meet on its own. Of course it was a Greek Bailout because otherwise Greece would have gone into default. And of course with repaid obligations the creditors received the money, just that it did not originate with Greece but it was injected by the rest of the EU. We can debate into eternity whether this was deceptive. I stand on the side of facts in that every single payment was publicly available, every obligation Greece had towards any of its creditors was publicly accessible, I find it very hard to even find a single reason to call this deception. Hardly any financial dealings in this world were more transparent than the bailout funding Greece received. How can you say it was deceptive when every Greek knew that his/her country's obligations had to be met? At no point did anyone talk about a forgiveness of debt other than certain portions of debt that were in fact forgiven. Greece received hugely favorable terms for its new loans, both in terms of maturity (Greece's debt maturity is the longest in the whole Eurozone) and interest rate. Talking about deception is not only farfetched but unwarranted.

    c) I am not excited, I just do not appreciate lies and a perversion of facts. I thought Western European nations stood on higher moral grounds than China which plays the historic Japan invasion card each time it pleases them. I find it ridiculous how Greeks bring back issues that have been settled in and outside of law courts and issues that Greece itself agreed to and accepted, which is that nothing in terms of WWII reparations is owed to Germany anymore. Greece agreed to this. Of course I do not mind how some dickheads on Athen's streets or some crazy Jews come out of the closet every now and then and pretend they have slept over the past 25 years and know nothing about such agreements.

    d) The assumed budget surplus was reasonably assessed under the condition that Greece would keep its promise to undertake structural changes, to clamp down on rampant tax evasion and to end the ridiculous policy of full time employment and paying hundreds of thousands of useless bureaucrats and government employees when in fact every other government, even those serving many more people than Greece does, affords itself 1/4 the number of public servants Greece does. That Greece lied again and pretended it would do something to turn around its free fall and descent into abyss was entirely their own choice and of course a Government can keep its promise and turn its fortunes around or it can lie and cheat and spend even more than it did before. But fact remains that Greece agreed to the bailout terms like a borrower agrees to the terms of a credit agreement. The bailout conditions were fair by any measure. And Greece COULD have met the conditions if it wanted, the fact is that it choose to not want but rather cheat its creditors to receive bailout funds.

    e) Of course does the EU more care about safe guarding its institutions and keeping the pact intact and not risking a financial market free fall than saving every last Greek public servant. That was never the promise. You can't save everyone. The mandate of the EU is to act in the EU's best interest. That includes the several hundred millions of Europeans and not just a fraction of Greeks.

    f) It is pretty clear that EU administrators and ECB members were not stupid in believing Greece can meet all its obligations if it was clear from the start that it could not. Greeks pretend as if they were cornered and as if they had to repay every last penny of debt within a short period of time. Nothing can be further from the truth. Other countries took 30-50 years to improve living standards in the way Greeks improved theirs in 5-10 years. It is only fair to expect from Greeks that they also now work for the next 30 or so years to repay the debt they used to improve those living standards. And that is precisely what Greece agreed to.

    It is an outright lie and nowhere supported by facts that Greece is absolutely unable to restructure and implement changes. Greece was and still is able to do so. But that all does not matter if Greece DOES NOT WANT TO. They can choose to default and a large sum of the debt will have to be written off. But what Greeks should have no doubt about is that a default constitutes a kick out of the club. Greece will not be part of the Eurozone anymore and it will not be able to use the Euro. Some of the plebs may threaten Europe by arguing a Greek exit will open the flood gates and other nations will follow but again that is not supported by any facts. Even 80% of the Greeks do not want to give up the Euro and do not want to exit the Eurozone.

    The problem is that Greeks want it all, they want a clean slate and they still want the Euro and even better, they still want to receive subsidies as if nothing happened. That will not happen that I am absolutely sure. Greeks can curse Germany as much as they please, Greeks can bring up fictitious reparation demands, Greeks can accuse Germany as much as they like, but fact remains that a default on their end and non compliance with the bailout agreements will cause Greece to be kicked out of the Euro club.

    And from what I am reading it has become apparently clear that most European citizens as well as central bankers and government heads are by now comfortable with the chance of Greece defaulting and an exclusion from the monetary union without a major market disruption or a disruption of the European engine.

    Financial markets also seem to confirm that an economic turnaround in most European countries is a fair assumption. Spain has made huge progress in its reforms, so has Portugal, so has France. Italy I am not not sure, I know too little about France. Currency markets are relative, the US does not appear to be on a solid path to recovery and raising rates this summer is anything but a forgone conclusion. If raising rates by the FED will be delayed then the Euro can easily climb back to 1.20-1.30 levels. I hope you account for this possibility in your investment portfolio :)




     
    Last edited: May 2, 2015
    #1130     May 2, 2015