nah, I don't think so, the only reason they made so many pennies is because of the decline in the worthless dollar, thousands of job cuts and all different kinds of cost cutting that usually only works for a few quarters. Itys okay to short alcoa, next dip back down will take it to the single digits. Valued perfectly at $15.00.
Just wait until the financials report, they will have no problem beating estimates, probably come in 50% higher than what the average analyst is looking for. With all these new accounting rules in place it will only be positive for the financials. As for alcoa, did anyone really think they were going to miss that low ball estimate, these analysts are a joke.
Worth it's own thread in discussion itself. Some said they were releasing some numbers tomorrow, don't know if that's true. Pepsi and Marriot tomorrow. Jobless claims as well.
Do smart traders actually hold positions through earnings intentionally??? (I've held twice through earnings by accident). I mean assuming you have no inside information, why oh why would you hold a stock through earnings unless you were a long term investor?
AA's revenue is down significantly. it will put shadow on recovery mode of market. I will not be surprised if market goes lower tomorrow.
Denninger's analysis of the numbers: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1495-Alcoa-Kicks-It-Off-AA.html
here's summation of the conference call.tell me if this is "good" 18:18 AA Alcoa conf call summary (14.20 +0.31) -Update- AA's Q4 will be impacted by holiday shut downs... expect aerospace to be flat y/y... destocking in aerospace supply chain; customers have 12 months of supply at this time... expect automotive to drop to 54 mln cars in the next year; dealer inventories are very low and need to restock in the next 90-100days; truck and trailers market remains weak... beverage markets remain stable... industrial gas turbine market has weakened... sees construction sales dropping 10-15% in 2009... China Automotive has been a strong player in auto industry... expects capital spending to be 1.8 bln in 2009, $850 mln in 2010 (down from $3.4 bln in 2008). Co said, "and then the most important thing on the run rate, we believe we can run this co at an 850 mln run rate capital expenditures without compromising the substance of the system." AA said in working capital, there was a big improvement. Co's going to get 800 mln working capital out this year. Co says it's at 780 mln in Q3 and it pretty much comes from all the leasers... comes from inventory reduction, receivable optimization and same thing on accounts payable... Once the co has ramped up the Juruti mine, this will get 2.6 mln of production, and it has the opportunity, given the bauxite reserves that are there to expand it up to four times the size. AA clarifies that flat-rolled operation are not profitable... says, "without breaking out every single one of the, individual locations that the co has. They are not profitable yet, and it's basically because they are operating at less than 50% of the capacity there and are just waiting on the Russian economy to recover.
NOD, Newbies, amateurs, rookies, and idiots trade earnings / economics reports, FMOC meetings, ect. Pros trade the reaction to same One of these two groups makes money consistently - food for thought Regards RN