Alberta Oil Sands Stk Pks

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by agpilot, Jan 23, 2006.

  1. Chagi

    Chagi

    One possibility for pipelines would be Enbridge, another would be Terasen (the latter is in the process of being acquired by Kinder Morgan). Sorry, can't think of any others right now, you might want to try Google.
     
    #11     Jan 24, 2006
  2. cybat

    cybat

    Most of the oil companies spend less then $15(canadian) to extract barrel of oil from oil sand with todays technology . do you really expect that oil price will go down below that number ??
     
    #12     Jan 24, 2006
  3. Chagi

    Chagi

    Don't forget that the various companies involved in the Canadian oilsands also have real options when evaluating their projects. Right now we have been seeing a string of announcements regarding multi-billion dollar megaprojects, but if oil prices were to drop, I'm sure that many of these projects could potentially be scaled back or cancelled.

    That said, I kind of doubt that oil prices will drop to the point that the projects are unprofitable, though I do feel that they will drop significantly from the current levels. Don't forget that companies like Suncor were around for a long time before $60 oil.
     
    #13     Jan 24, 2006
  4. I was involved in the design of some of the equipment 5-7 yrs ago and worked closely with Suncor and Syncrude. They already had the high oil price forecasts factored into the feasibility of their equipment and plant production. It was intended as a long-term investment. Seems like somebody had a clue where all this was going. Now they're spending bigtime money again. But I'm not an investor so I don't know much more than this.
     
    #14     Jan 24, 2006
  5. kmi has an interest in oil sands. the stock had a pretty good run of late, came up in my screens in october.

    seemed a bit toppy after it broke 100 which was above my fair value.
     
    #15     Jan 24, 2006
  6. Chagi

    Chagi

    Most likely they did sensitivity analysis as part of the overall planning towards making a go/no-go call on the project(s). I highly doubt that Suncor/Syncrude speculated 5-7 years ago that oil prices would be at $60 barrel, and I can pretty much guarantee you that they did not not use $60 oil when doing NPV calcs.

    I would also bet that right now these oil companies are doing NPV for projects based on $30 or so, significantly less than the current futures prices. Would you as an employee or board member want to pitch/approve a project that depended on $60 or even $50 oil right now?
     
    #16     Jan 24, 2006
  7. ===============
    Maybe thats why its called black gold;
    actually prefer oil- gas sector much more than goldstocks.

    One is a luxury;
    another is necessary.

    One has much better trends in earnings, total return, total sales, & total volume than the other:cool:

    Beverly Hillbillies called it texas tea;
    well, back to green tea & oil/gas uptrends:D
     
    #17     Jan 25, 2006
  8. It was interesting in that after the equipment was delivered and the plant tested for operation, they just sat on it. They didn't produce any oil at all. Although my time log is unreliable, it might have been about 2yrs later that the plant actually fired up.
    That's all I know and can't speculate beyond that.


     
    #18     Jan 25, 2006
  9. (CWPC.ob)

    CanWest Petroleum trades OTC, but that should be no reason to ignore this jewel. 1st they own the land, no one but them, low debt for an OTC. OIL is over $32 and now OIL sands can be profitable if operations run smooth. Size isn't always efficient and their a small company, but wait they own land like a multi national conglomerate. And if OIL fails they are into uranium mining as well a nice little hedge. DID I MENTION they are under $5.00

    It's my best performer YOY at 1420%. MY portfolio is over 100 stocks(Yea got 9500 shares at .27) when no one was looking.

    VOLUME everyday is up 300% above 50 day avg. That ABC news show on OIL sands got this one running. SEE YA in it at $4.30 or better and well be smiling in MARCH ( I expect another report in March to discuss more proven reserves)
    :D :D :D :D
     
    #19     Jan 26, 2006
  10. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    I tend to disagree that the oil sands will not be a profitable venture, but to think that simply because large companies are involved it is immune from being a big waste is silly.
     
    #20     Jan 26, 2006