Alan Greenspan is due to be replaced soon by Bush. Any guess on how the US$ will react? My guess is that the dollar will head UP.
Why would it head up? You think the market is relieved that the US is going to lose Greenie? Uncertainty - both in the fact that no one still knows who, and once they know who they won't know what the "who" will do - is bad for markets. Unless the new guy is announced and then goes right away to center stage advocating sharp increases in rates, I think you're going to see a move down, not up, in the USD. There are my thoughts and reasoning. Care to explain why you think otherwise?
agree with Yvan, if we look to historical replacement of fed chairman, $ always has lost some ground.