Alan Greenspan: "The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble"

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Daal, Mar 11, 2009.

  1. People can fully choose where to keep their money. I had my life savings in Treasuries for years at crap rates-to a point where I was struggling to make ends meet even with 3/4's of a million packed away.
    #41     Mar 11, 2009
  2. Statement of Christopher J. Dodd
    U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
    "Mortgage Market Turmoil: Causes and Consequences"
    March, 22 2007

    " February of 2004 the leadership of the Federal Reserve Board seemed to encourage the development and use of adjustable rate mortgages that, today, are defaulting and going into foreclosure at record rates. The then-Chairman of the Fed said, in a speech to the National Credit Union Administration, said:

    “American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage.”

    Shortly thereafter, the Fed went on a series of 17 interest rate hikes in a row, taking the fed funds rate from 1% to 5.25%.

    So, in sum: By the Spring of 2004, the regulators had started to document the fact that lending standards were easing. At the same time, the Fed was encouraging lenders to develop and market alternative adjustable rate products, just as it was embarking on a long series of hikes in short term rates. In my view, these actions set the conditions for the perfect storm that is sweeping over millions of American homeowners today.
    #42     Mar 11, 2009
  3. Daal


    Thats why I say fed bashing is a religion. It doesn't matter what evidence you present people wont change their minds. We had a global real estate bubble and people want to blame overnight loans between US banks. 'Fed Credit' is not the answer, you can find plenty of periods where fed credit was growing a lot and it didnt produce real estate bubbles.

    Low fed funds IS to blame for part of the subprime crisis/alt-a because a good chunk of that had teaser rates that were priced off short-term interest rates, so 1% rates probably blew the bubble bigger than otherwise would. But the bulk of US mortgages are fixed rates and the bubble would have happened anyway
    #43     Mar 11, 2009
  4. as i said before, it was loose credit not low interest rates that cause the bubble.

    right now, mortgage rates are near an all-time low so why isn't there a massive bubble?? why is real estate deflating at an unprecedented rate? duh! because credit is tight!

    why wasn't there a massive bubble when rates were low from 1950 to 1964?? duh! because banks weren't lending to any jackass with 5% down.
    #44     Mar 11, 2009
  5. Bravo to the card counter.....
    #45     Mar 11, 2009
  6. eagle


    I think we misunderstood here. When people said Greenspan was responsible, not for the entire mistake, but rather a warning missed given so he was somehow reponsible a portion of it, meaning that he, as someone sitting on the top of knowledge in this domain and the power he has, should give some warning to the general public about the bubble that might have to come and its consequences. But he didn't, he just said "I don't think it's a bubble", "It's normal" or something like that kind.

    Trivia: You may expect the given answer will be the later as in this context, so I guess it's the former one but I don't have any data to support my answer. I could be wrong.

    #46     Mar 11, 2009
  7. The "crash" earlier in the decade was worse. Keep in mind the NASDAQ lost 82% and the S&P 50%. Also there isn't a person here whose home isn't worth more now-even post haircut-than it was in 2000.

    I wasn't a Greenspan fan per se' but he RAISED rates something like 15 consecutive meetings before he retired. The deflationary fears in 2002 were misguided in retrospect but it wasn't evident. After all T-Bonds have been pricing in a recession for a decade. Bottom line there was too much liquidity-not just from the fed window but actual productivity gains too and money chases yield and appreciation by habit. EOD markets are like musical chairs. The music stops and someone loses their place in the game. It's always going to be that way. Hence ZERO SUM....

    #47     Mar 11, 2009
  8. I'm playing Devils advocate. I put most of the blame on Greenspan.

    I would have to say to get credit flowing again, exactly what they are doing now.
    #48     Mar 11, 2009
  9. piezoe


    Greenspan did not cause the bubble, he merely added fuel to the fire at the wrong time, and when the house caught on fire stood by and watched it burn to the ground, even though he had fire hoses within easy reach..
    #49     Mar 11, 2009
  10. Isn't it more that credit is "tight" for poorly qualified borrowers... as it should be and should have always been?

    From what I hear if you're a qualified borrower, getting credit is not a problem now.
    #50     Mar 12, 2009