From what I was told in another thread - he basically makes up these probabilities and does not actually calculate them based on hard data. This is a huge weakness with these type of methods as you've already discovered. Not only does the interpretation vary between two traders, it will quite likely vary if the same trader views a chart today and then views it again tomorrow. I think you're doing the right thing trying to systemize this stuff. And you're sure it actually does work for him...?