H1 overnight so competing pressures going head to head early. Reversal triggered but no follow through. H1, a type of continuation buy set up triggered but stuck below Friday's high and Globex high. Still short and will wait to see how the market acts after they open up in the East. When I look at a smaller aggregation such as the fifteen minute chart, the overnight action does appear to be basing for at least a test of, if not another breakout above Friday's highs. Had this H1 occurred above the breakout level 4430.50, this would be without question a long position, rather than short. For me, 4430.50 is an extremely important levelm as is Friday's late day high. Should the pullback continue, and we see an H2 around the level; of the middle of Friday's range, which would also be the middle of last week's range, that too would be a long signal for me. If a four hour candle closes below that mid level, then I'd look for a test of Friday's low. I'm going to be in the office this morning. I have my platforms on the office computer but I don't do social media so I may not be able to update anything here possibly until after the market closes. I tried to be somewhat comprehensive as to what a BPA trader might be looking for as this week gets underway. One other comment that I think might be useful: Others I see posting here make reference to "calls" and trading "calls." I trade set ups. There is a difference and an important one at that, I believe.
First of all, I commend you for sticking your neck out with a real time call/trade. Now, your summary above highlights one of the problems with the discretionary price action approach as there always seems to be a good argument for price going either up or down and it all boils down to how you interpret what's going on. However, in hindsight, it's always crystal clear and one could annotate the charts with perfect clarity, i.e., "Price was basing before continuation higher" or "Price was moving sideways before selling off". Good luck.
Like SunTrader, I do not trade the 4 hour chart but have enjoyed the back and forth in this thread. it will be interesting to see if 4440 holds this up move as that is the 61.8% Retracement.
No, not always, but at previous levels at which price pivoted, yes. But again, I trade set ups, and the set up is currently a short here for me. H1 is a long set up in proper context. Current context is not one in which I'd use that H1 to initiate a long position. Context, i.e. the market cycle, not discretion, is at work here.
damn well put. My issues exactly. How much predictive power are we actually gaining from various patterns WHEN TRADING LIVE? Even if they do repeat, erratic price often shakes you out before the move. I think that patterns repeating themselves is much less important than how you manage the trade though. Develop a sound directional bias and position when signaled -> reverse or get out if wrong etc... Do any of you scale in/out of trades?
No, not always, just mostly... I think that's why Al Brooks also is the master of annotating yesterday's chart, but uncertain/indecisive in his live chat (from what I've been told). It's very easy to fool oneself in trading - especially as the charts look very different at bar X from the Open than after market close. I'll add that there's also many failed patterns (which looks promising in real time) that you can't even spot on the charts after the close as they're hidden after the fact. Simple example: You won't see all the failed trend line breaks - only the most obvious ones. Another would be the successful breakout UP or DOWN from a consolidation after repeated failures in both directions. In practice, many traders get chopped to pieces before price finally moves. And of course, on yesterday's chart it looks easy as hell. Yes. I've repeatedly recommended this and I honestly believe it's one of the techniques that can make or break a trader even if nothing changes within his analytic approach. Simply always initiate a trade or trading session with your smallest size. Exceptions can be made as you gain more experience/confidence, but wait with that. Then, add to your position as the market proves you right. Done correctly, this should give you a breakeven (or close to) position after the subsequent add-ons. In practice, you'll have a few small losses, a few scratches and some big, big winners. In essense, this is cutting your losses and riding your winners. You want to be big when you're right and small when you're wrong (which everyone will be). All in/all out is for the expert traders with a massive edge.
You seem to be one of the smarter and more reasonable ones here. I urge you to re-read my first post from this morning and my response to your post.
I can sure verify this in reverse. When I have in the past fell into the temptation to average down I have incurred some horrendous losses. You were the guy fading me and adding to your winning position as I was adding to mine.