I don't expect this to go on. For the last 18 months there was sufficient turbulence in the markets. Russia-Ukraine war, fear of slowdown in Jan, subsequent better performance of the US economy, China slowdown, Interest rate changes etc. My system is designed to take advantage of volatility caused by these things. From mid-October, volatility is slowing. I may have to sit out or find a different approach or a different instrument. I am still studying this volatility slow down and am trying to pick and analyze data sets that can help me predict this kind of slowdown or uptick.
I had never seen that video before today and I would say it is unquestionably a disaster. "Most beginners cannot do this. Most experienced traders do not do this. But a trader who understands what's going on and they know the odds of the market pulling back to the moving average can do this." You'd have to ask Brooks himself why he made this video and why he thought it should be posted to the internet. He starts "I took a trade today in one of my actual trading accounts ... to illustrate how to manage scaling into a losing trade." He purposefully took what he felt would be a losing trade so he could illustrate how to do something that no beginner can do, and most experienced traders have enough sense not to do? Strains credulity, if I May say so. The chart shows a tight bull channel, followed by an 8 bar, 2 leg pull back and an H2 buy signal. There are countless slides in his course where this is a BUY, not a SHORT SALE. He does, throughout the course mention that most days, on a five minute chart, price will trade to its 20 ema. I do not recall that that was ever used in the course as justification to make a counter trend trade when the market is in breakout mode. Use your imagination to picture what that 20 bar rally on the five minute looked like on a 15 minute or an hourly chart: big bull candles closing near their highs. In my opinion, in this video, Brooks is full of himself: "So it's reasonable to sell," he says repeatedly. No, it was not reasonable. This isn't even a sell according to the scalping method he includes in his course because when scalping on, say, a two minute bar chart, he would tell you to scalp in the direction of the five minute ema. I do not use the moving average on my charts. But if I did, I would not be inclined to short when the ema is rising and the market is in breakout mode. Brooks does himself, his course, and people like me who would advocate for the value of studying his course no good service by posting this video of an exceedingly poor trade. The fact that he took a poor trade isn't the real offense. The offense is he published a 13 minute video attempting to justify it. Why not just keep it private? What sort of ego compelled him to publish an example of such poor price action judgement and repeatedly to justify it? I stand by my opinion on the value of the content of his video course. This video here is not at all like anything contained in the video course. I'm very, very disappointed in Brooks's decision to make and post such a video as this, to say the least.
These are two different funds and are related to different instruments. I certainly need diversification since the volatility is not going to be the same forever. My funds for different strategies are clearly earmarked. Even broker accounts are different. That 50% per year is related to swing stocks and 30% per month is related to commodities. Swing stocks are easy for me because I can analyze fundamentals owing to my academic background in Math and Accounting. I have been investing and trading shares for long time. My move into commodities and currencies is rather recent. Situations can change. The 30% growth account may slow down. When I said I make a living on trading, I meant I don't have other source of income. Trading income and dividends is my source.
The method is based on evaluating where the market is in the market cycle and then trading set ups that that phase supports. In breakout mode, I look to buy H1 and H2 set ups. In a trend channel, I look to buy with trend pullbacks to the bottom of the channel. In a trading range, I look to buy at the lows of the trading range and sell at the highs. I look for major and minor trend reversals to keep me cued to changes between the phases of the market. I hold these trades for days. The last entry which I closed on Thursday was opened on November 1 and went for 183 points on a stop that was also just over 20 points. I took part of the position off yesterday at 4417 and 4430.50. Had it not been the weekend, I'd still be holding the whole position had today been a market day and the rally continued. I am still holding the position and I will add to it if the rally continues on Monday and I get a breakout mode set up, an H1 or H2. Stop loss is now 4367.50. I haven't tracked win rates or risk to reward in a long time. I do take losses. I won't venture a guess as to my winning percentage on swing trades only to say that it is very satisfying, as are the profits when compared to the money lost when my stops have been hit.
I am impressed with your approach, especially your trading higher time frame (4Hour) even though Al Brooks must have taught you the 5 min one. And also your chart reading by superimposing the higher time frame on your charts. Even your price action knowledge is good. Keep up the good work.
You are seriously the greatest trader alive. It’s amazing how many people on ET can put up such incredible returns. the foresight to buy one stock that has done 50percent cagr for 15 years. Even the faangs haven’t done that (and the wealth creation there was considered the greatest in humanity). And this stock is the fallback to the real trading strategy which is 100x’ing every 18 months!
I consider myself as trading the weekly range (and/or ranges). The four hour chart shows me entries with defined risk, but the weekly chart is my map.
This is just a winning streak. It is likely slowing down. My data is already telling me. Making 30% a month happens on winning streaks. I have a friend in Utah. He made money at this speed during Bitcoin craze. Later that streak stopped.