Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Apr 22, 2008.

  1. S2007S


    these stocks are all touching 52 week lows as oil continues to push higher....

    anyone looking to buy or is there way to much risk in this sector....

    im looking at JBLU or AMR.

    (AMEX: ^XAL)
    Index Value: 20.84
    Trade Time: 11:59AM ET
    Change: Down 2.56 (10.94%)
    Prev Close: 23.40
    Open: 23.40
    Day's Range: 20.56 - 23.40
    52wk Range: 23.30 - 53.95
  3. S2007S


    Im thinking these can easily surge 20-30% if oil were to come back down to an even $100.

    I going to take a little bit and put some money to work on the long side.....
  4. That's true, they can have violent snapback rallies, but the charts remain technically broken. I'd wait for a base and a higher high - e.g. AMR going over 10 and building a base for a few weeks and then moving higher - before initiating a long position.

    I'm buying some calls to take some profits right here though. No need to be greedy.
  5. Airlines are terrible stocks, they are not good long term investments. Just because a stock is cheap today does not mean it is a good value. Do not fool yourself.
  6. U r right that the rally can be amazing, but i'm also worry about it dropping, as they used to drop 4 to 5%

  7. S2007S


    Bought my 1st airline stock today...


    AMR at $7.29

    will add more of a position if it breaks down below $5.00.

    Once oil has a pullback of at least 5% or more AMR should be back trading between $9-$10.
  8. S2007S


    Well people still have to fly, I think even if 1 or 2 go bankrupt the government will step in and save the airlines, I think these stocks are cheap but could fall further, Im just in for a trade back to $10+.

    Will see what happens....

    It makes up less than 1% of my entire portfolio so im not worried....
  9. Why would anyone buy an airline stock? For a trade maybe, but I have been short UAUA, LCC, AMR, DAL, CAL, and NWA for awhile now. DAL and NWA were layup shorts out of bankruptcy, there first day trdes were the high! Took awhile and several reloads on LCC and UAUA, but they are my best performing shorts % wise. As a goood floor trader told me about shorting years ago "wait until the money is lying on the floor, all you have to do is pick it up" Well that pefectley describes airlines. LCC will be bankrupt again. I would not be surprised if the new DAL went belly up again either. AMR will take more time, UAUA and CAL will probably try the merger thing, but i'm not worried about these pigs going higher anytime soon.
  10. These airlines do have a history and reputation for going out of business, kaput, bankrupt and your stock certificates worthless.

    I would only long when there was an obvious uptrend in place. The downtrend has been in place since early 2007 with lower lows and lower highs being made all the time.

    It might be a good time to load up, but you might wake up one day to hear American announcing they are declaring bankruptcy and your shares are worthless or the shares could lose another 50% in value from here and test the 2002-2003 lowsssssss.
    #10     Apr 22, 2008