Ahmadinejad loses and the S&P soars?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DrPepper, Jun 12, 2009.

  1. If Mousavi beats Ahmadinejad in the Iranian election, it will mean that the Iranian people want to move away from nukes and closer to the West.

    The ES has recently gone above it's 200 day MA and seems to be hoovering at a key S/R level with dojis every day for the last week on increasing volume with the COT report from last week still showing that the commercial traders are long this uptrend (as they have been since March 13, 2009).

    As much as I believe that the current economic situation in the US warrants a collapsing stock market, I have to think that, if Ahmadinejad loses, it will be the catalyst for the next strong up move in the stock market. If he wins, all bets are off.
  2. Possible. fwiw, I expected the capture of Saddam to rally the market. ho hum, nada.

    On the flip side, I do expect Ahmadinejad to lose.
  3. I expect him to lose if it's a fair election.
  4. Who?
  5. wartrace


    Ok, I have to ask. Has his being in power had a negative impact on the S&P for the past three months?

    I thought the S&P was having trouble breaking through 950 because of the dollar devaluation, rising oil prices, record unemployment, nationalization of private companies, lack of consumer confidence, record foreclosures, the scotus throwing out basic business law (Chrysler bond holders) & other minor things.

    Who is running Iran is holding it back? You must be long S&P options:D
  6. I would say oil prices are more likely to drop because of him losing the election.
  7. Haven't all of the economic events you described also been present for the last 3 months while the ES has soared? I am just saying that the ES is in pause mode and waiting for some news event to propel it up or down. I think the Iranian election may be just that event.

    Actually, I keep shorting the ES and getting stopped out.:(
  8. cstfx


    I expect it to remain status quo come Monday morning.
  9. wartrace


    Yes, it is true that most everything has been priced in DrPepper. I doubt a change in leadership over in Iran is going to do anything.
    I think some positive economic reports will be the key. Oh, the bond auction results are "questionable" in my opinion. I wonder if the Fed bought up a bunch of them to support low interest rates.
  10. pspr


    Iran's election will have no effect on markets. Status quo.
    #10     Jun 12, 2009