Tums likes to throw as much shit against the wall as he possibly can, in the hopes that some of it might stick. So far, he's still throw'in. <hr>
I guess what I was trying to say was that the way reversals shape up is a pretty random event, meaning it may take 3 bars or it may take 30 bars. It is more important to be able to see an overall picture of a brewing reversal, be it 1 bar or 100 bars One of the trades that stuck in my mind was an fDAX trade that I did last year, I sold a resistance price level with a tiniest stop, what followed was a total collapse of bids. No bar reversal pattern was needed. Mind you I didn't use histo either that time
Your first post was spot-on. There are too many variables posted to make an intelligent analysis of the different probabilities of sucess of each option and the strength and duration of the move. It's just throwning more crap out there to pretend like he's actually providing useful information ... in the mean time just obfuscating newbies and giving them more crap to deal with. Think of it as junk food for traders. *** I'd love for Tums to prove me wrong, but we all know that isn't going to happen.
Mandel is right --stick with simple stuff. Price action is King. I use it with a few colored boxes to jump out at my dumb ass and you can make money all day long at it. Here is one way: <a href="http://tinypic.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://i43.tinypic.com/eukm4i.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic" width=800></a>
I would not dare critique your system as I don't know anything about it but using the phrase price action followed by a chart with a million indicators is an instant classic.
You're 100 % correct, but I was merely trying to illustrate with color (which is up and which down) the action of the bars. So here it is stripped of all the bullshit. blue is long and yellow is short: <a href="http://tinypic.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://i43.tinypic.com/347w47p.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic" width=800></a>
Nice chart, and you demonstrate exactly what I was talking about. To simply define a trend and trade it. Now, I don't use Range Bars, I use bscic Time Charts, but it still the same concept. And I don't use SMA's to assist me in defining a trend, but rather I use higher time frames, but once again, it is the same concept (spent enough time looking at these charts to know). Trading isn't about having a complicated mental process, it's about having a simple physical process and getting yourself to take action when you have a sigal, and doing so consistently. Yawn, time for brunch.