Hi Anek Thanks for the journal When do you feel a bottom is a bottom. My question is easier to see on the chart
07.26.07 Bearish trending day, "we've been expecting you!" Vertical green longs (2nd didnt work due to reversal) Vertical red shorts (5th didnt work due to reversal) Morning trades attached, afternoon will follow on next post. The trend is your friend baby!
07.26.07 Afternoon Highly more difficult session. In many cases due to reversals and congestion i got chopped to death but still was able to fight through the storm to score some good plays. Morning was by far more optimal for the system. Shorts First and second worked well Third did too, took little heat but after sticking to the plan it worked well. Fourth, a beauty. Fifth stopped me out, hint of reversal. Sixth worked, took little heat but worked well. Seventh took a full stop, hint of reversal. Longs First, full stop, hint of reversal. Second, worked with massive heat, price got 2 tick from the stop then KABOOM and Ca$shing. Third, was a beauty. Fourth, another beauty. Fifth, biggie stop, got killed here. Sixth, another stop. Morning score: 2 losers and 9 winners. Afternoon score: 5 losers and 8 winners (yes overtraded a bit but emotions got to me, was a crazy day!) Total score: 7 losers 17 winners And called it a day, overall, extremely profitable day with a more dangerous and complicated afternoon. Morning was just kindergarden stuff for the system. Tip of the day, trade what you see, with the trend, whether is up or down, no bias. Stick to your method and in and out, in and out. Believe in your method and your method will believe in you. Hope it helps, what a day!
A, In my humble opinion a bottom is never confirmed until you see higher lows *and* higher highs and with a subsequent low that is also a higher low hinting towards yet another new, higher high. Remember to make an effort not to call bottoms or tops, just trade the trend. Now, when price reaches the HOD or the LOD congestion and hesitation is to be expected so better to examine it from the sidelines unless you are already in a trade and just managing your exit. Unfortunately, easier said than done because there is massive uncertainty at those areas. When price is close to HOD, I look for a pullback to sell MOST below the HOD and leave a bit on the table for a possible run. On the other hand, when price is close to a LOD, I look for a pop up, to short it back and cover around the LOD with again, a runner for home runs. ....for now, I would simply recommend to avoid those areas. Hope it helps.
Hi, Love the thread, thanks. 1) Does anyone have an esig Heiken bar .efs ? (I went to the esignal forum and found one but it overlays on regular bars and you have to paint the regular bars background colour not to see them.....problem is if you stick a bollinger or whatever on there it calculates based on regular price bars....) 2) I noticed you used 200 sb chart yesterday but used a 250 sb today ? Is there any indication when to use which one ? 3) On a regular session (not like today obviously) what point values is the usual target and stop ? ie: 10 point stops with 10 point gains, 15 point stops with 15 point gains....etc 4) Can you go over briefly how you indentify congestion ? 5) I don't see what purpose the stoch serves or bollinger bands serve.....to me it just looks like you see trend up so buy when the first or second bar turns green, or if trend down short when first or second bar turns red (after a series of atleast a few bars agains't the trend obviously first....ie: reasonable retrace).....then you enter on bar colour change back in the direction of trend set stop of X amount of points and set target of X amount of points.... 6) Have you tried this on ES (just wondering because slippage will become an issue on YM on real size whereas ES can take 200 - 300 cars with maybe .25 slippage max.....lol, I am only doing 1 car but just curious for someone that is consistently profitable and wants to continue to increase their gains like yourself. Cheers
1) I'm sure Esignal has HA bars. I mostly use their colors for quick reference. 2) I adjust tick/share volume depending on how I feel the current day is developing. If low volume day, might even go down to 150, 100. etc. Just looking for the right glasses you know. 3) I suggest to trade with a 1:1 risk vs reward ratio then as you get better you can increase the reward; as you get more optimal entry areas and a feel for when things are running your way. HA bars help for the runners, so do the dots I use on the bottom, HHs if you are long, LLs if you are short, etc. I believe this area is very personal but I definitely dont suggest a crazy 20 point stop and 10 point target, that's just plain bad risk management. You need to turn the odds in your favor or you won't win. Remember, the best trades always tend to work from the start causing very little heat. If your examination is correct, no need to use volatility as insurance. Big stops in contrast to targets are for the insecure. Amateurs want to be right, professionals just want to make money, therefore, I believe a 1:1 risk vs reward is a good starting point to FORCE yourself to trade well. 1.3 risk vs 1.0 reward MAYBE for starters but never above that. As you get more experienced it is your duty, yes your duty, to start expanding that reward area, and only then is that you reach constant profitability. If you *have* to use a bigger stop then you simply need to polish your entry skills or else look for other risk management methods like adjusting stops on the fly, of course, always tightening NEVER widening. The idea is to REDUCE risk not increase it. 4) Congestion is when you see a HH and LL or HL and LH. ie Consolidation, Symmetric Triangles, etc. Uncertainty if you will. 5) I use it as guidance, indicators for me are simply confirmations, references. Price > all. If you feel better without them, by all means, get rid of them, more real estate for price ! However, I still find 5,3,3 crosses with the trend useful, I try to anticipate them all the time. Bollingers, again, another reference, when price is hugging a band, another quick reference of current momentum. 6) Absolutely, that is the plan for the future. Could not agree more. Hope it helps.
Another fairly easy day with strong trending moves, just how I like them. Pretty good hit rate today, very pleased with the market. Friday afternoon and as expected, some choppyness so heading out to relax. Charts will come soon for sure
07-27-07 6 Winners 3 Losers, no shame in that, just filling the cup with drops, but filling it Yep, i deserve the loss on the last short, bad call. Second short was a home run, 49 points. Market was a good boy but I could have read it better so not sure why i said earlier I was pleased with the market. Perhaps I am, and just not pleased with myself. Oh well, the idea is to end up in the green with discipline and patience, and that I did. Went back to TICK charts for comparative reasons and cleaned some aspects of the chart. Using Pivot High/Low indicator from Tradestation to compare with S/R dots, so far I like my cleaner charts. (Sorry TRO) Played with new stoch settings, but prefer 5,3,3 for now. This marks the end of a full trading week. Not a single down day and without special magic. Same as always, system trend following, in and out without deviating from the rules. Anek