It has been a white since I posted a chart since most of the action is now happening in my IRC channel. For old time sakes, here is my NQ Daily Analysis. Anek
=============== Despite the fact it has been particularly trendy lately, even in these circumstances the SP shows its true colors as a mean reverting market. You can test that for yourself. Quite easy to take say the 3 bar pattern and run a test. Without a trend direction filter it is no edge at all. With a trend direction filter it is marginal edge with tons of drawdown. Buying breakouts is a very tough road in the SP. Low accuracy with an occasional outsize gain on just about any time frame you want to test it on. And as an aside waiting for closes to confirm a breakout is universally a worse performer in any historical test you run. So in answer to your question, it is not that you took the wrong breakout that hurt you, it is you decided on a philosophy of buying breakouts at all. The idea you can have winner after winner with 2 point stops buying breakouts does not hold up under even cursory scrutriny.
How can the ES drop 20 points over 4 hours not violating any of the resistance zones and you call that 'not knowing which way to go'. AHG or non AHG clearly money was to be made on the short side until 14:20 Here's some posts form a guy who trades price of a 3 min chart who was killing the short side [11:43:25] <*> k guys ...good trading all ...will take a tenner and hld 1 for around the 1385-1390 area ...stop @ b/e ..see u all later [12:56:29] <*> major ES supp @ 1384 ...expecting a retest of 1384 [13:35:39] <*> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1390.75 --> + 13.25 Not to mention the short trades from Anek and other AHG traders I see posts like yours from newly registered veterans all the time on ET and shake my head in disbelief. Post something of substance that provides education to retail traders trying to learn the ropes. oh and if I want to see integrity from veteran traders all I need to do is watch CNBC or Bloomberg
Scenario 1) Looking for upside continuation tomorrow morning, with resistance at ~ 1980/2000 zone. 2k looks like a juicy spot to unload longs and get back short, setting up a possible H&S. Scenerio 2) All shit can break loose overnight/pre-morning. And we can get a retest of the LRC Median Line which could be a good spot to get long. Less likely but possible considering the funk the market is in.
great stuff indeed..especially the last part about Anek's and other traders early experience..really encouraging.. no book will ever replace these logs..thanks for posting
attached is chart from today's NQ. got shorted out twice. First was an attempted short at TL with 3br and second was close below what looked like an M with magic tick. Looking for any helpful comments and criticisms. Much appreciated.
Einstein, I have the same problem with you today, but on the long side. I've been working on to examine the problems. This is my preliminary conclusion: Trading horizontal breakout only when the momentum is strong. Trading breakout in choppy markets is a loser's game. You can see today the market is quite choppy and with little momentum for a long period of time. Stay away from breakout trade at this time. Anyone else with additional comments? Swingscalper