Einstein, Your question is one that I think we all have had. Simple put, the trendbreak and "new" trend down may just be a correction wave for a higher timeframe. Anek has suggested keeping an anchor chart up to observe the bigger picture. On it you may see that the new trend has pullbacked to a larger s/r area or a 50% retracement as you suggested. In those cases I just wait or If there is a bounce off a third hit on the new upper trendline, I may sell it, with a close stop. Just my 2 cents. Hope it helps. D.
Disclaimer, the stuff I'm about to write is more an internal dialogue than anything else, Hope someone will find it helpful, ignore the awful English ;-) A few thoughts about AHG: So you were lucky enough to find a great guy (Anek), who in the spirit of sharing , wanted to teach you a system in other words he gave you for free his edge. Then how do you proceed in order to learn and become proficent with this sys? First the easy part (no disrispect Anek, you know as an experienced trader, I'm telling the truth). Learn to recognize a market structure HH HL & LH LL (MS)with a glance , at this stage it doesn't matter if your base chart shows a MS in a downtrend and your anchor chart shows a retracement of an uptrend, stick with your base chart and learn to spot the freaking MS, can you count to 4? End of the course...say what? Yup once you are gone through all the madness of trying to refine the basic system , because you are farking always looking for the perfect sys aren't you? Yup the one that never fails and gives you 100 winners out of 100 trades (c'mon make me laugh and tell me it's not true. I tell you what is true ,even if your head tells you it's not possible, your subconscious is always trying to outsmart the system), you' ll go back to lesson 1 and you realize it was really all you needed to know, but using this knowledge with discipline and truly accepting the concept of propabilities, is the difference between a winner and a loser. So the long journey is almost unavoidable.More about this later. Ok MS is now crystal clear, what's next , Supports and Resistances these are the core of trading , if you think about it each pattern each structure is the product of support and resistance, buying low selling high, shorting high covering low. Price action. A confirmed support or resistance is made by price rejected at the same area where it formed a previous pivot point. Once Resistance is violated it becomes possible Support, it becomes confirmed support when the price is rejected at the same area. Flip the concept for Support. DoubleTops, Double Bottoms and their failure, easy concept right? no need to explain further. W's and M's, very similar to DB and DT , ok good. Head & Shoulder and failure <---- you need screentime to recognize this powerful formation, it's well worth it. Triangles, Coils, Wedges whatever you name them, you know what they look like, we showed a lot here, you have seen how brutal they can be...kaboom Congestion, Trading Ranges, Rectangular formation, you've seen them, you know you expect a breakout/down. Trendlines and Channels, a trend line is formed when you can draw a diagonal line between two or more price pivot points these alone give you an edge, I' ve seen traders making a living just by selling and buying trendline breaks,and I've seen traders making a living just by buying and selling trendline rejections, if you want to know how to draw channels with points 1,2,3 , I'll post a chart. Ok , now you know all the weapons in your arsenal, so you should be a winner , no problem.... Slow down warrior that was the easy stuff. :eek: To be continued
Couple of misc notes as I type in a hurry. Triangle breakouts aligned with the side of the previous trend have a higher chance of success. In bull markets W bottoms and DBs chance of success increase dramatically. In contrast in bear markets their effectiveness is reduced but not a great deal. In bear markets M tops and DTs chance of success increase dramatically. In contrast in bull markets their effectiveness is reduced a great deal. In case there are any doubts we are currently in a bear cycle. Anek
Thanks Anek, that was only a brief recap, I obviously suggest to read all your precious comments on each subject, available in this Journal. Say hi to Mickey Mouse
Right on Mark, With Anek's help I now see progressions setting all day, just have to have the discipline to wait until they say "HELLO". I has certainly taken me a while to be able to separate the wheat from the chafe. Turkey day here, Best to all. Don