Right now it's 11:26 Eastern time. The long-term trend (on a 10k Volume bar ES chart) is down, but the short-term trend (on a 1k volume bar chart) is up. Would you take a long trade, hoping for a long-term reversal or wait for the long-term trend to continue? I have struggled with this for two years. The time period you look at determines what the trend is, so I often feel conflicted about which trend I want to follow. My inclination is to follow the longer trend, but if I do that I miss some big moves, waiting for the long-term trend to confirm it's reversed. Then because you're getting in late, sometimes it reverses again and you get stopped out.
Anek, Just a quick post to thank you for everything. You have taken my trading to a whole new level and I'm very grateful for that. Wish you and your family a great vacation. Thanks for the NQ reversal call, was on the money. You set an example to traders and individuals alike, lots of health and happiness to you. Wish there were more like you out there. In appreciation, ADK
hi BD, Your bar reference is 10:1 which in my opinion is too wide to give you any real meaning. If I may, I would suggest 3:1 as being a superior reference. regards f9
Heh I whish I could tell you I have such a perfect plan, the reality is sometime I short the TL rejection, sometime the break of the previous Low (in a downtrend) I don't really know whether it 's going to break or no, I try to place my entry in what I consider the best at that very moment, it's very difficult to explain , I look at the momentum, but probably it doesn't really metter, because the price often retraces or pauses after my entry, sometimes it goes right away. The biggest problem except the discipline which is a difficult beast to defeat, is to let the profit run. I don't like when the price reverse on me after say 3-4 points, so I tend to exit and reenter later on the following breakout. When I look at the trend , I think gee man you should have waited for a confirmation of change of the trend and exit with 15-20 points instead of trading like a mad man. It's the struggle between the swingtrader and the scalper in me... with futures the scalper is winning so far Trading this way my R:R is often negative, I take 2-3 points with an average stop of 4 points. I have to fix this but it's darn tough
You mean no power dots for us? I guess I wouldn't know how to use them anyway. Have fun and say Hi to Mickey...and don't stand in line for 4 hours at the Epcot Center rides. Just check out the virtual world and eat! ANd fireworks are cool too. Thanks!
I dont trade the ES in the manner of this thread, namely trend trading. However I do rely upon frame reference and I prefer 3:1. However if A prefers at least 4:1 so be it. regards f9
i am a scalper by nature from equities in the late 90s and early 2000s so I know what you mean. Its hard for me to trade trends i used to be counter trend. Also I am the same with letting the profit run . I might say in the es put on a 2 or 3 pt stop and then take 3-4 ticks profit! I am starting to trade the nq as well. thanks for your reply it was appreciated