Nice double top on the ES just now, 2 points below, but it seems to be pretty muddy down here now at 92.5... I'M STAYING OUT FOR ONCE!
I guess Jim Simmons and his people do it properly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he made $1B last year system trading. I believe system trading is possible, that's why I keep trying. Maybe others gave up to soon or are just better suited for discretionary trading. Everyone needs to trade the way that fits them. But, it appears logical to be able to put a set of trading rules to code to yield a profitable system going forward, taking emotions out of it. A double bottom repeats itself just like it did decades ago, so why not quantify it and create a system out of it. That's my next step. Disagree with me if you want, I'm not trying to disprove anyone, if you make money, all the best using your method.
Anek, I'm also trying your method and having good results. The biggest thing I struggle with is how far must a trade go in your favor before you move your stop to breakeven. For example, today I entered a trade in the ES that went plus 2.5 in my favor. My stop, based on s/r was below my entry by a 1/2 point. Do you let the trade go in your favor this much and still take a loss by waiting for your original stop being taken out? I took 3 ticks profit(exited on a trendline break), but in the process gave back 1.75 pts. Any help by you or anyone else on this thread is greatly appreciated. Billydakid
How about scaling out? When your scaling out you are sacrificing possible future profits for the certainty of locking current profits. Using your example you had 2.5 in your favor, lets say you lock in 1/3 or 1/2 of your profits and let the last half run for more. Two things can happen, you lock in 2.5, best case scenario it keeps running and you lock in more profits on the second half and worst case scenario you get to close out the rest of the position at break even. The overall trade should end up profitable and you got the best of both worlds, you locked in profits and you also allowed to let the profits run. Also consider exiting a trade completly if your reason for entering it no longer exists. Lets say you entered it because of your expectation that a trendline break would give a good move, if it breaks the trendline and it does not do what you expected you can close it and start looking for your next trade. Hope this helps
Scaling out works if you are trading more than 1 contract. It doesn't if you only trade 1, though, and isn't it detrimental to the bottom line, as you say, since scaling in, then all out once price reaches the stop maximizes the trade? I think some peeps have mentioned using the end of last bar as a moving stop at some point... I'm interested in what happened to price after you exited. Did it go back down, creating a new LH? or did it go back up through your entry and your stop, creating a low?
Piscuy, I'm only trading one car for now. Price did not make a lower low, but did come back to my entry( after I exited) and then continued to the high it is at now. Billy
Hey Guys, Hope all of you are trading well these days. Piscuy its good to have you in the forum and if Anek speaks highly of you then we can definitely learn from you. I know its all about price action and trend following. and I know the main variables are price and volume bars but does anyone use any type of Technical Analysis for confirmation or just to enhance the trade probability. I know Anek doesn't since he preaches price,price,price. but anyone else Piscuy ? any other trader. For example, at an end of an uptrend to confirm if its gonna head down and you see and feel it coming, anyone look at the MACD signal line crossing then zero line crossing. just as an example. or possibly look at some type of oscillator. Basically does anyone have some sort of companion tool, or something extra different than the price and volume ? Please let me know if you guys do have something different. that goes along with price and volume. I know Technical Analysis is slow and conflicting and distracting, I've seen what you guys mean. The trend before everything else. but if there's anything else for guidance I'd appreciate it. Thanks to everyone for posting their charts and feedback.
Hi, Net Loss -$212, not a bad day IMHO, took a lot of legit trades that simply stopped out. Lots of back filling etc. There will be days like this, no worries. Took a couple of stops in GOOG as well. Tomorrow is another day. Cheers
Find opportunities that provide very small risks and decent rewards. Sell and cover at logical places if only using uni-cars. Until you get that, you won't make it. Back to errands... Anek