"AHA" Moment - Finding confidence

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by abstractcapital, Apr 6, 2023.

How long did it take you to find consistency?

  1. 1-2 years

    2 vote(s)
    14.3%
  2. 3-4 years

    1 vote(s)
    7.1%
  3. 5-6 years

    11 vote(s)
    78.6%
  1. We've done this dance before. I'm a former RIA. As an RIA, if you post "performance", you're legally required to post "ALL performance".. good, bad, from "way back when". I'm not jumping through THOSE hoops. (Years ago I had ALL of my trades audited... that was a hassle and an expensive necessity. I'm not willing to go through anything like that just to satisfy YOUR skepticism!)

    If you don't "get the concept"... I can't help you.
     
    #11     Apr 6, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  2. virtusa

    virtusa

    Took me around 10 years.

    Question is: how good was the consistency?

    2% a year? 25% a year? 200% a year? Because that matters a lot and makes a big difference.
     
    #12     Apr 6, 2023
    abstractcapital likes this.
  3. notagain

    notagain

    NQ weekly average true range centered on 5 day moving average, return to the mean from the extreme.
     
    #13     Apr 6, 2023
    abstractcapital and tomas262 like this.
  4. Okay. I can accept that.

    In the "other" thread where a guy was asking who was profitable not many shared their performance. Makes you wonder.
     
    #14     Apr 6, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. deaddog

    deaddog

    RIA???
     
    #15     Apr 6, 2023
  6. Many will speak about a "good trade"... or a "good year". Back when I was doing the US Investing Championships... there was one guy who'd made ~100% one year. That got some ink from the contest, of course... but the greater truth is that over a 10-year period, that was the ONLY year where he'd done much better than "break even". That contest year he was loaded up in gold and HongKong in the 4th quarter*... which happened to be the hot sectors. Other than that he was "nowheresville" for a decade. That's why the SEC has rules about disclosing "performance"... that is, "if you tell ONE thing, you must also tell All things"... which is why nobody advertises "performance".

    *I remember that particularly because he knocked me out of a 1st Place win.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2023
    #16     Apr 6, 2023
  7. RIA = Registered Investment Adviser... a required designation/licensing if you manage other people's money for a fee. Comes with LOTS of regulatory compliance and disclosure requirements.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2023
    #17     Apr 6, 2023
    Tradess0610 and deaddog like this.
  8. %
    NO wonder\ most are asking about trading;
    USa Today had a newspaper article about 90-95% lie in USA.[more than that if we count mis\pelled words\LOL.
    But one that makes 100% per day, but had to withdraw money out for bills\thats believable; especially hits 14of 15 posts + changes his nickname.
    I dont even know that the psycho\bable term ''aha'' means.
    Trading/investing does not really '' make me happy'' but i enjoy it=maybe same thing??:caution::caution:
    Blaming losses on a girlfriend or pussy; hard to comment much on that.
    But i did save a Nat Geo maga zine with color pic ''my God that is a jaguar the AZ rancher exhorted '' BIG cats cant read/ the range map show jag range stopped @ TX\ Mex border/LOL
     
    #18     Apr 6, 2023
  9. traider

    traider

    You said former, meaning you don't have to comply with the rules if you are no longer one
     
    #19     Apr 6, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.

  10. I'll admit most of the money I made the first two years was a mix of a lot of luck and being early to narratives. I made $100k on $GME but not bc I was following the hype on WSB. I was experimenting with custom stock scanners at the time and they seemed to be working. I caught some major moves like $KODK and $SPI and when I saw $GME pop up one day, I figured it was worth a shot as it was looking to break above $30 and the chatter had increased on the subreddit.

    After having won big, I gained some ego & started throwing around tens of thousands into plays that obviously didnt end well bc I really had no strategy. After losing about $30k, I realized it was time to take things more seriously and dived deeper into learning everything I could. I'd say I gave back about 30% overall to the market and the rest of the $ was spent on spoiling my fiance & I with material stuff and little vacations here & there.

    I had traded mostly options and crypto to make $150k 1st year and $100k the 2nd year, but again, without any solid strategy. My third year I didnt really trade after I lost the remaining balances on my accounts and tried to find something that would work for me. I simply started posting ideas instead of trades to see if I had any substance at all without having to risk capital.

    Now, I have a few strategies in my playbook that I'm still tweaking but seem to work well for me. I started focusing more on price action and trading only on my support and resistance lines. My primary focus has been weekly options bc I like the volatility, so if the overall market sentiment is bearish, I'll look to buy puts at tops like the previous day's high or wherever my resistance line is, then sell once PA reaches VWAP or my support line - and vice versa.

    I use 9/21 EMA's, stochastic slow, & VWAP to gauge market momentum, trendlines to find areas of interest, and mix it with PA + volume analysis to help read the direction we might be going.
     
    #20     Apr 6, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.