Limit down on feeder cattle today. I had a person short a September contract a few weeks ago. I thought for sure it was going to bounce off of $206, but then we blew through that support level.
@ -10 I get raped by this one. I still dont get why KW should 10 cts/bu cheaper than ZW. DEC16 spread makes sense but nearby expiries are strange, any explanation ? (Funds are unusually long on CBOT and short on KW)
With the current front months in backwardation, I am afraid of beeing long contango. Maybe I will trade the butterfly -JAN + 2 MAR - MAY Soybean curve is really messy currently
Maybe coz of tighter srw supply and lower wheat export because of higher price (hrw export is near 45% of production, srw is near 30%, so drop of export impacts on kansas more)
I am still in. It bounced back a little today so far. I don't know for this one. I thought soft red quality problems had been priced in at mid summer and seasonals would kick in earlier.
With global deleveraging we are witnessing and soy plunge in the abyss, it should work. Otherwise if commercials continue to push the front spreads inverted I will convert it in a + Nov -2Jan + Mar...
speaking about exports you can see the decline of hrw export is bigger. So demand is lower. Unfortunately, i've thought 'bout that after i've got stopped out again.
My screen is red Commodities are in macro mode Given the still big position of funds in grains/oilseed, I feel bearish