Ag trade ideas

kinda strange f. curve (mgex wheat)

 

Vyki, Your data is incorrect. Here are yesterday's settlement prices: http://www.mgex.com/documents/20150811.pdf

 

Out @ -0.30 after WASDE.

 

Wow, grains are bloody red today. USDA raised yields way over expectations.

 

Out @ -0.16 for a 1 tick loss.

Bullish WASDE while the seasonal window is almost closed.

 

could u plz show seasonal?
afaics it's not closed.

vice versa

 

I use the same software as you so you are right, the seasonal window is not closed ( in 1 month ) but I have been in it for 5 months and this spread basically went nowhere...And I think this WASDE will create a little bullish pressure for rest of the seasonal window...

 

Grains got hammered again after the USDA report yesterday. Anyone looking at the ZCZ15 to ZCZ16 spread? Looks to me like it might be a buying opportunity. Can't go too much further down in terms of carry, I would think.

 

why? carry is something like 6 c/month, so for an year it will be near 70

 

Out half of it @ -12 for a scratch. Still holding half of it in case the commodity house that triggered Jul move still needs a bit in Sep. By the way, does someone know who it was?