Got long D (Robusta) this morning for a shortish term trade based on short term technicals. Not much being risked. Still waiting for a significant retrace in KC to enter and annoyed about my 2 tick "bottom" miss.
Okay promise, this is my last whining about this - but fucking coffee today, man. I don't mind losing on a trade or flat out being wrong - but I definitely do mind missing out on a trade that I scoped out and didn't get filled on. My initial 2 entries were losses, my last resting order entry was 4 ticks off (1.1965) from the eventual bottom (1.1985). Current price: 1.3350. (And now I hear that Brazil's crop may be smaller than expected)
What do you all think about commodity prices as a whole? I have read a few articles somewhat calling a bottom in the prices. Also, I heard a rumor there were major issues with the Russian wheat crop. Anybody have any insight or heard anything on that?
Anyone watching the lean hogs? There is a huge spread between the August, which expires here shortly, at $77 and the December at $59. I have read there is some bearish news w/ Russia banning imports.
Russian wheat is really ok, it shoud be around 56 MT which is quite good. I think its already too late to get a bad crop. Grains/oleaginous can go lower depending on the US crop. Price are not at a bottom, most of the farmers are still making money.
There is a strong downward seasonality between AUG/DEC. Its kind of classic even if it really big this year.
On the subject of hogs. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...drug-means-u-s-missing-china-pork-import-boom