Interesting thread, just found it. I watch a lot of ag spreads as well. Specifically, I have been watching the December to January soy meal spread, based upon the explosion in soy meal prices due to a perceived shortage on the east coast. Here is the 2- hour chart of that spread. I think it might get back to $4 to $6, but I'm not sure I would want to short it from here. Looks like it might possibly bounce back up to $20 to $22.
Thanks for posting, meal has been an interesting trade, unfortunately I missed my entry and didn't get on that train.... I agree that the odds favor a short, perhaps a solid break of 16.0 on your chart would be the trigger. I would assume that the shipping delays are fully baked into the pricing here, the question is when will they break back into normal range and reverse the squeeze??? The spread I've been watching is the Z/N where a breakdown of the range below 37.0 might make sense. May need to move into F/N though as the Dec typically is rolled in just a couple of weeks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hD7IIBqq/ Another interesting point that I found while researching. The seasonals favor shorts from here for old crop, but once you move into the new crop (i.e. F5/Z5, H5/Z5) the seasonal move is long.
GHW, just a follow up, did you liquidate the remaining of your Nov/Jan Feeders? It is back to higher levels now... On the wheat front, I had the idea to go long milling wheat vs other types of wheat two months ago when the news came out that a lot of french wheat would be downgraded to feed, but I didn't take it. Now the move is starting almost 2 months later???? Any ideas why ?
The ZMZ14:F15 spread is popping this morning a couple of bucks, not sure if it is an entry point or not. The mention of wheat made me remember the KC/Chicago wheat spread. I was watching that a lot earlier this summer, but sort of forgot about it. Of course, now it has taken a huge dive to the downside. the momentum is certainly down right now though.
Yes, my profit target was hit on 10/28. My remaining half position went out @ 5.0. Overall a good trade Sorry, I don't follow the french wheat at all
KW/W is one of my favorite spreads to trade. It definitely has been taking it hard on the downside. The March spread tends to do well mid-Dec through Jan/Feb though. I'll be watching it closely.
This page on the MGEX website has some free commentary from various vendors, about once a week from each. The most interesting to me are the posts that come out on Tuesdays.... http://www.mgex.com/market_commentary.html
Wow. I am super impressed at Austin Damiani's commentary. It's super weird he works for frontier futures. It looks like a Mom and Pop futures broker. "Exceptionally active traders can get rates as low as $9/contract."...Yoohoo. Do you know of other interesting grain commentary available for free?
Long Mar/ Short May KC Wheat at @-3.5 at the close. Carry > Dec/Mar while it's the end of the 2014 crop and the new crop is lower.