Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. #741     Jul 20, 2015
  2. Vyki

    Vyki

    Posted this in another place few days ago, but maybe it will be useful or someone will answer some questions:

    Interesting blog about grains
    fredruel.myhostpoint.ch/
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    Some interesting ratios. Didn't find anything about Kub's average. Maybe someone knows more.

    [​IMG]
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    I read this:
    Soybean chart in that moment
    [​IMG]
    Soybean crush in that moment.
    [​IMG]

    I didnt manage to understand, why the need of beans will push up spread? during half of july spread was in flat, the need of beans is kinda constant during last weeks and now suddenly it will go up.

    But the spread rose!
    [​IMG]
     
    #743     Jul 21, 2015
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  3. Vyki

    Vyki

    #744     Jul 21, 2015
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  4. I know I saw this trade mentioned the other day, but can anybody explain a bit more what is the fundamental reason behind expecting KCBT to outperform ZW? I checked it out on scarr and definitely see where it looks quite low compared to usual, I just didn't know the fundamental reason if there is one.
     
    #745     Jul 22, 2015
  5. I am short CBOT wheat, funds bought almost 20 MT on the last weeks which is big. CBOT wheat increased compared to KCBOT & Euronext wheat and is now very expensive (EU wheat was exported to mexico).
    It seems that fund overbought this product even if US production should be good and above last year production.
    Then I short ZW (CBOT wheat), went long KW-ZW and long EBM-ZW.
     
    #746     Jul 22, 2015
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  6. Vyki

    Vyki

    I don''t know what lies behind seasonality, i've written my thoughts here, (it's in russian), main idea:
    1)usually KCBT is higher, because there is more protein (13.5% vs 11,5%).
    2) this summer because of huge precipitation in CBOT wheat region, price became almost equal. So, when weather improves, it would be returning to normal. Also, as written in the article "Feeding Damaged Wheat to Livestock" more low quality CBOT wheat will go to feeding, so it should compete with corn, this is also a bearish factor
    3) Also export. There is more export of KCBT then CBOT, so when prises of both wheats are lower, this will be bullish factor for the spread too
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2015
    #747     Jul 22, 2015
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  7. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I have no luck lately...I was working ZS U/X @ 1.75 carry since last week...Yesterday it went to 1.5 carry before going right through my target @ 2.25 inverse intraday...At least the idea was valid it seems...LOL:(

    Also my long ZW / Short MW went 2 times within 1 point of my target without touching it...And as everyone says ZW is overbought now...:(
     
    #748     Jul 22, 2015
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  8. Thanks @Rachmaninov and @Vyki

    Google translate let me read your post on that link also
     
    #749     Jul 22, 2015
  9.  
    #750     Jul 22, 2015
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