I have a question: Is March 2016 a meaningful date in the RFS mandate regarding biodiesel? For some reason, soyoil Mar/May 16 is trading at a strong inverse...
Yeah, you definitely called that. I was thinking if a down move happened that it could really kill the spread fast since it is the front month now. Good call on your part
I don't think so. Jun 1 was a deadline. There's another Nov 30 2015. All the RINs and volume obligations are calendar year. Maybe it's because of the South American supply coming on about that time?
Traded it earlier on this thread but we are getting to close to expiry for me...Plus the situation for new crop december is kind of unclear with Texas flood on one side and surplus in India on the other.
The curve is inverted from Mar 16 to Dec 16 since the RFS announcement. Prior to that it had a normal contango structure on all '16 months. I think( not sure ) it is just the kind of movement where all the most liquid contracts move up in unisson on a price shock and the less liquid spreads actually end up "showing" the move. It just takes time for the curve to get back in line...
interesting article 'bout soybeans https://www.evernote.com/shard/s217...67b804c11632/43f5ff104be6fa1bd7adf5493c1dd9ca