Followed lx008 advice and closed my seasonal long Soymeal/ Short soyoil @ 9990. Now long ZL N/Q @ -0.02 .
Taking a loss is very, very important. I do it on a regular basis. In fact, I'm a card carrying holder of the capital preservation society.
Just closed out @ 6.8 for a nice 5.3 profit! I only had one on, so I am flat now. I debated on holding it until next week but figured I would go ahead and lock it in. If it pulls back I might enter again.
I am looking at April/May 2016 on Hogs. If it comes back up some, I think it would be a good short. The seasonality seems to be pretty good over the past several years just looking back through the charts. I will sign up for Scarr and do a further back analysis though to really see and need to check fundamentals. That was just eyeballing the chart.
It seems indeed a good short. Backtest is OK and the spread is overvalued now. Optimum window July 9th - Mar( next year ) 6th.Beware May is not a really traded expiry.
Beware that for this kind of trades ( front month bull spreads close to expiry ), when it starts going parabolic like that, the risk / reward really becomes asymmetrical. For example when you closed it out @ 6.8, it was much more likely to go to 10.6 than back to 3...