Ag trade ideas

I do the same trade on CBOT wheat. However, I just checked and I find that seasonality is slightly AGAINST the trade till the end of may. Carry has been much higher around 15-20 cents. How do you calculate your "seasonality" ?

 

I am short S NOV15/long C DEC15 at 2.5. Excellent soybean harvest, 2.5 is quite high for seeding season. On these price farmers should increase soybean acreage.

 

Wheat spreads bounced like you said it would. I am not sure if it has steam.

 

Are you talking about CBOT or MGEX wheat? On MGEX, the spread hasn't been much wider than current levels except for little temporary spikes even if my full carry calculation is around 16. On CBOT the carrying charges can increase at Jul expiration...

For the seasonality you need to do backtesting to know...This one is 100% profitable between May 8th and Jun 23rd on the last 20 years and 80% on the last 44...So it is quite reliable IMO

 

I will check this one tonight. It should balance my portfolio to get some short beans.

 

Hello, i,ve traded spreads since november, wonder, maybe there is some skype chat or something like that, where i could participate.

 

Welcome.No. We just post trades publicly here...

 

ok

So, I sold ZLQ-ZLZ @-0.12 because of good seasonality. And price is near resistance

 

I have the same on V15/H16...

 

"On Friday, Wilmar International Ltd., the largest cane miller in Australia,
took delivery of 37,611 raw sugar futures contracts, or 2.1 million short tons,
against the May ICE Futures U.S. contract, according to brokers."

Gosh...Bottom for sugar?