In regards to the long portion of that spread, I talked to a farmer this weekend from out west. He was very adamant that he felt December corn prices should make a decent move up over the next several months. He also said he thought soybeans might move up a little bit, but that ultimately they would come down because he thought total production and acres planted was going to come in higher than the current estimates. For whatever that is worth lol, just passing it along. He farms and runs a business where he interacts with several very large producers regularly.
Yes. The only problem IMO with this corn carrying charges trade is that it is already running at around 60% of full carry... I am taking some heat on my spreads lately so I did a little study of the results I got so far on this thread to reassure myself( LOL ). Here it is : Winners : 14 Losers : 3 Scratches : 8 So given I usually have a 1/1 risk/reward on my trades, it's not that good but it is not bad... Sometimes I exit early but i do the same on winners as well as losers...
The rain can reduce some corn area in the South and change for beans.USDA may lift both its yield and area estimated figures for soybean in coming months.
Pretty bearish soy meal exports in the NOPA crush report yesterday. Exports down 4.5% in March versus Feb. Soy meal seemed to drive the rally up in beans a couple of months ago. Could be more weakness across the sector as a whole.
What do you think about long feeders/short fats spread this year? The seasonal window is beginning now...
News came out that live cattle traded at $161 in KS, and the market started dropping like a rock. Of course, I just got someone into that LEM:Q spread too.
Clients that shorted this Wheat Spread are pretty close to hitting their profit targets... If you can get a decent fill in Live Cattle, a few of my clients appear to be buyers in here...
This is one of the most reliable seasonal trade available. I exited @ -17 a few pages earlier...Full carry is @ -18 right now.