Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. Interesting trade, the seasonal lines up and only 2 out of last 30 shows prices higher that 6; roughly 7.75 and 8.5.
    Today is trading over 7 and showing strength. Low corn prices and good demand are driving feeders higher, but nothing lasts forever.

    I'll add to my watchlist and look for weakness to enter.
    #31     Sep 5, 2014
  2. Also looking at Nov/March. It has a way to go before putting a new high this year and may give more resistance if/when it starts weakening. One downside though is the vol/OI is low compared to Jan.
    #32     Sep 5, 2014
  3. drm7


    Oct 14 Bean Crush.png The October bean crush went parabolic, but is losing steam. Looks like a good short here. (Sell Oct meal/oil, buy Oct Beans).
    #33     Sep 5, 2014
  4. TraDaToR


    That's Oct/Jan , not Nov/Jan I guess. My spread range today was 5.525 to 6.1.
    #34     Sep 5, 2014
  5. Brighton


    Nov beans ... just in case someone who is new to this is going bonkers trying to find an Oct bean contract.
    #35     Sep 5, 2014
  6. drm7


    October, November, tomayto, tomahto...
    #36     Sep 5, 2014
  7. Posted a chart with Nov/Jan. :) If the 6.5 resistance holds again, I'll be looking to get in. A short term profit target in the 4.75 area. Medium term between 2.0 and 3.0
    #37     Sep 7, 2014
  8. I agree. My transactions are too high for the crush though. Getting in and out of three contracts per lot is tough and that still is only a 1:1:1 ratio. Too bad the CS futs have no volume.....
    #38     Sep 7, 2014
  9. TraDaToR


    Generally I enter above previous highs but this time I thought the last top would be lower, forming a head and shoulders near 3.5 with time stop at the end of october.:)
    #39     Sep 8, 2014
  10. I dont really understant why this spread should be going down ?

    On the statistics side, my backtests showed that its quite neutral (and volatile).

    On a more fundamental basis, crusher cant crush more than their capacity, so when they have already cover all their capacity they cant do more in the sort term.
    And the three markets will most likely converge to the cash prices with soymeal supported by its shortage.
    I would be afraid to bet on a short trade on the crush because all the people which have already sold would need to go out of this trade because they cant deliver it.

    Is is it just technical analysis ?
    #40     Sep 8, 2014