Yep. But I decided it wasn't worth waiting to lose a bit more...LOL. I exited because of the double bottom on cattle outrights.
It seems a bad idea to me, OCT14/OCT14 went up near the expiry and didnt stop ! I feel that most of the time convergence is not working weel in nearby expiries
US Wheat is currently so expensive compared to other origins, thats clearly a big bearish factor ! However, I feel that the market is relaxed concerning Ukraine/Russia markets !
Indeed... I did a little statistical study and you are right. I traded just because the change in ratio was so abrupt but there have been similar occurrences in the past. I still think I have a little edge but perhaps I will exit soon...In any case before April...
That's how I know I have a good trade with your LE Apr/Jun. Even when outrights go down, it breakevens or goes up...Same thing with ZM Jul/Aug...