Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Oh well...I am not sure it won't work in the end. I will give it some room. :)
     
    #341     Mar 5, 2015
  2. Side note: Contango made a decent move again today on crude by the way back in other direction, just wanted to throw it out there if you all have any interest in the flys. July/Aug/Sept or Aug/Sept/Oct both seem pretty far out of whack again.

    I am going to keep following this feeder/live cattle spread will post the next call and see how it does
     
    #342     Mar 5, 2015
  3. Greenie

    Greenie

    Cattle/hogs going to infinity? Everyday is up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2015
    #343     Mar 6, 2015
  4. How's it going today for everyone? USDA March WASDE report out tomorrow. Repositioning today before the report?
     
    #344     Mar 9, 2015
  5. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Prospective plantings at the end of the month should be more interesting. I don't know if there will be much action tomorrow...

    Have you seen cash cattle around 163$? Do you know what it means exactly when they say x "in the South" and y "in the north" ? I don't know much about cash markets.
     
    #345     Mar 9, 2015
    thefuturestrader likes this.
  6. Greenie

    Greenie

    Any stop on this?
     
    #346     Mar 9, 2015
  7. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    You mean for Cattle/Hogs ? Yes around 71. For Cattle Apr/Jun, we are around my entry point...
     
    #347     Mar 9, 2015
  8. Yeah, I saw that LEJ-LEM spread come back this morning. That range is pretty strong. It may take the futures chasing the cash to pop out of that range.

    TraD: I'm not an expert, but I can tell you what I know. Cash trade is pretty localized from the feedlots to the packers/slaughterers. Thus, you can get different cattle trade prices in Texas vs. Nebraska, i.e. south vs. north. Although offers are being made early on in the week, trade doesn't usually happen until Thursday or Friday. It sounds like feedlots are starting the week at $163, after a strong futures performance last week. That number will likely adjust based upon the futures price as the week goes on. Sometimes it seems like the cash leads the futures, other times the futures lead the cash. Watch and see how it develops as the week goes on.
     
    #348     Mar 9, 2015
    TraDaToR likes this.
  9. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Thanks. The difference between South and north is around 100$ so I thought there was something more than just a cash difference due to plenty of supply in Texas and less in Illinois or something...Plus "north" and "South" is not precise enough in my mind...LOL
     
    #349     Mar 9, 2015
    thefuturestrader likes this.
  10. I don't know the reason behind that really Tradator, but I do have a couple friends here in TN essentially doing arbitrage on that lol but there is still risk. They either buy a large trailer load here in TN and drive to New York and sell them or the opposite. They wait until there is a decent difference in prices of course and so far have been pretty successful.

    My friend told me it is because there are significantly fewer sale barns in the north, but I am not sure on that exactly. In the south we are more impacted by dry weather also I would say. Hot dry summer usually means lower prices around here because so many people start selling.
     
    #350     Mar 9, 2015
    thefuturestrader likes this.