Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. That's a great article, TraD. I also read that article on the Chinese soybean trade, which was fascinating. I continue to play around w/ soybean prices in R. Like TraD said, the beans are stuck in a range bound trading pattern. I have attached an hourly graph of ZSK prices, with the mean, and one and two standard deviations shown. It's a little crude, but it shows how exact the price action is w/ regard to the standard deviations.
     
    #271     Feb 13, 2015
    TraDaToR likes this.
  2. Thanks, I will take a look and see. It pulled back a bit but is starting to move again now
     
    #272     Feb 13, 2015
  3. Just put on a trade thinking that we are on the upper end of that soybean trading range, and we could head back down to the lower end. Did a 10.30 to 10.80 vertical call credit spread for around 7.5 cents, then bought the 940 call for around 5 cents. The strong volume has me a little on edge, but we are also getting near option expiration for March options, with a 3 day weekend.
     
    #273     Feb 13, 2015
    TraDaToR likes this.
  4. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Out @ 0.41:)
     
    #274     Feb 17, 2015
  5. Had some bullish ZS data from the USDA yesterday, rallied up pretty strong. Off slightly today, with March options expiration today. Should be interesting to see what happens early next week.
     
    #275     Feb 20, 2015
    TraDaToR and FCXoptions like this.
  6. Kicking myself for closing out of the ZW/ZS spread and not reentering on the pullback, up about 25pts since I got out. :(
     
    #276     Feb 20, 2015
  7. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Scratch @ 49 finally ...LOL. Even 1 week ago I thought it would go down but this USDA lower soy acreages ruined my last hopes. I love to scratch trades lately, but it's not that stupid when you realize your trade is becoming a gamble...Look at KW/ZW now...
     
    #277     Feb 23, 2015
  8. Yeah, soy meal is tough right now. Ag resources is saying that Brazilian soymeal is at a $60 per metric ton discount to the U.S., and that it is profitable for those in the southeast near ports to import soy meal from Brazil. Simple supply and demand would seem to dictate there would be at least cash pressure on soy meal, if not on the board. But, that bullish soybean acres number is supporting things for now.
     
    #278     Feb 23, 2015
    Rachmaninov and TraDaToR like this.
  9. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Looking better now:). I think I will enter Jul/oct or a further one soon.
     
    #279     Feb 23, 2015
  10. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I am getting my ass kicked on OJ K/N... I guess it will be the first loser on this thread( apart from scratches )...
     
    #280     Feb 24, 2015