No major surprises with the WASDE report, from what I could see. What are everyones' thoughts moving forward?
Rangebound, fundamentally driven ag markets. Good for seasonality but lower volatility. At the same time, the markets are a scarier place( oil drop, CHF crap ...) so more business need to hedge. Commercial hedging volume higher.
Entered ZSN15-ZWN15 @ 467.25. I think soybeans will outperform wheat as well as the seasonality at play also.
Flat, locked in at +5 3/4pts. I started second guessing myself on the spread a bit and wanted to lock in the gain. Now, I feel like I need to look back into the spread a bit more and reconsider, so thinking out loud here and open to input. Tradator pointed out to me they are not well correlated, so I guess in the event of a major news spike there would be some hedging affect, but ultimately not well correlated. ZS is nearly twice the size of ZN also. But I was doing it as a 1:1 so something to consider. As of the past few years wheat has seemed to sell off typically over the next few months, where soybeans has moved up. So if that holds true then definitely a good factor in favor of the trade. I'm not sure. I'm going to look into things more tonight and reevaluate everything before entering again. Happy with locking in those profits for now though!
Yeap still in.. it's okay. About 5-6 points out of the money. The front month wasn't ramped up that much, its the mar-may spread that is being squeezed. Someone intends to be long sugar at delivery pretty bad.
I have quite the same problem with my ZW U/Z as the spread is already @ 70% full carry while the front month is getting inverted. I am in the green though...
Damned, why the MAR/MAY ZW is in backwardation ? There is a lof wheat in US and they dont export much !