I am out of KW/ZW spread @ 34( scratch ). Previous september low on ZW is turning into a support while it is becoming a resistance on KW...Plus the end of the seasonal window hasn't been profitable over the last 5 years. Perhaps I am not giving enough credit to the support zone on the spread but this last leg down was too much for me...
TraDaTor, which months were you in again on that spread? I looked back a couple of pages, but didn't find it. Getting a small pop in the grains today before the Feb. WASDE report tomorrow. People seem to be expecting some bullish soybean news, in terms of reduced carry out and lower production in Brazil. Should be an interesting one.
I was in March. I am pretty sure I posted it somewhere. If there is bullish soy news tomorrow it is definitely bad for my soymeal fly...Are you talking about rumors you heard or articles you read?
Short Sep/Long Dec Cocoa @ 18. The front of the curve is getting flat plus there is a strong seasonal tendency on this one.
Here is what our mid-day grain update is saying: AgRural reduced its Brazil soy production estimate to 91.9 mmt vs. 95.0 previous, yield estimates were lowered from 50.3 bags/hectare to 48.6. This compares to last year's record crop of 86.7 mmt. In tomorrow's report, the avg. est. for the US soybean carryout is 398 mb vs. 410 mb last month. Strong export and crush demand are the likely reasons why. World soybean carryout is est. at 90.44 mmt vs. 90.78 last month. Maybe this morning's pop already built that news in? Buy the rumor, sell the news?
FWIW Just checked a few articles ( DTN/Darin Newsom,Steiner Consulting, Benson Quinn Commodities/Brian Henry )on tomorrow Brazil production and they all say it should be downgraded but the crop is still record large so...
Do any of you all trade the spreads for a year or more out very much? Looking at that bloomberg screenshot, some of those spreads seem like they might have some opportunity. I know those are based on the last trade, so might not actually be quite as it appears but nonetheless. Just reading more into the carry and everything, trying to figure out what are potential opportunities and what are bad ideas.
Yes. I posted some further spreads. You can't really trade many contracts so I don't know if it is worth the effort. I try to post mostly "liquid" trades here...
Yeah, completely understand. I believe I recall seeing somebody post about hogs on here awhile back, have any of you all been trading the April/May spread in recent years? Seems to have been quite consistent if entered a little later in the year and held until near expiration. Could anybody explain the fundamental reasoning behind these? They seem quite consistent recently. Edit (found the post on trading hogs):