Ag trade ideas

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/fonterra-cuts-milk-volume-hopes-for-dry-nz-again--7920.html

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/synlait-urges-caution-on-ideas-of-dairy-price-rebound--7929.html

 

Short Sep/long Dec Chicago Wheat @ -12.5 on seasonals.

 

I am going to get back into the ZM fly. I have my order placed at -5.2

 

Any Idea why contango is not sot high in corn, wheat and even in backwardation in soybean with prices so low.
If we come back fee years ago, such prices would have produce a massive contango !

 

Big rally in the grains today, lower dollar, etc. Is this a trend change or a blip on the screen?

 

Hell of a busy day. Forgot to add, i shorted the july/oct spread in sugar today.

 

demand for ethanol has been strong campaign so far. current

indeed! i'm personally not sure crude bottomed. nor am i convinced the Greek debt issue is behind. just some thoughts.

 

Interesting one. The only downside is that the carry is already important. Have you got some special fundamental catalyst besides seasonality ?

 

Yeah it's partially seasonal and July supposedly reflects the buildup of new crop, 2nd reason was in the previous recent rally, we were told there were very few cash buyers at those levels, and when it dropped, the phones started ringing again. Cash premiums are still very weak in Brazil for this time of the year.

 

I will perhaps follow you. Didn't you say in a previous post some of the guys in your office were getting long sugar?