Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. kanellop

    kanellop

    #2271     May 12, 2020
  2. I dont really understant why this spread should be going down ?

    On the statistics side, my backtests showed that its quite neutral (and volatile).

    On a more fundamental basis, crusher cant crush more than their capacity, so when they have already cover all their capacity they cant do more in the sort term.
    And the three markets will most likely converge to the cash prices with soymeal supported by its shortage.
    I would be afraid to bet on a short trade on the crush because all the people which have already sold would need to go out of this trade because they cant deliver it.

    Is is it just technical analysis ?
     
    #2272     May 15, 2020
  3. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Which spread are you talking about?
     
    #2273     May 15, 2020
  4. kanellop

    kanellop

    A little time ago i open spread futures positions to the following:

    Long to MGEX Wheat December 2020 / Short to KCBT Wheat December 2020.

    George.
     
    #2274     Oct 21, 2020
  5. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I am long MW N21 against both ZW N21 and KW N21, But the KW leg wasn't the best idea in hindsight( drought in Kansas...)
     
    #2275     Oct 23, 2020
  6. kanellop

    kanellop

    Well, i close my spread positions yesterday after some hours from the time that opened it.

    Right now that spread is around 9 pips advantage MWE.

    Seems that huge drought exist in U.S.A Southern Plains, Russia, Ukraine and Argentina.

    I am curious where the MWE/KCBT December 2020 can go.

    George.
     
    #2276     Oct 23, 2020
    TraDaToR likes this.
  7. kanellop

    kanellop

    I reopen my spread positions in MWE Wheat / KCBT Wheat a little time ago.

    Right now that spread is around 13 pips advantage MWE.

    Also, seems that KCBT Wheat regions in U.S.A will receive some precipitation.

    Here is the data from NOAA:

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1603672296

    I want to have that data for Russia too but until now i have not find any resource for that.

    George.
     
    #2277     Oct 25, 2020
    TraDaToR likes this.
  8. kanellop

    kanellop

    #2278     Oct 25, 2020
    easymon1 likes this.
  9. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again.

    I want to say that in the Price Perceptions Report:

    https://www.cis-okc.com/cis_006.htm

    of the Company: CIS-OKC,

    and in the Publication,

    Issue #1668 December 18th 2020,

    exist mention to the U.S.A Winter Wheat Regions that are affected by Drought.

    So, I make in the internet a research for to get more informations about that,

    and I find that this Data exist here:

    www.drought.gov/drought/data-gallery/us-crops-and-livestock-drought ,

    and in the right side of this internet page exist the Data Link: Percentage of Crops and Livestock in Drought:

    www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/AgInDrought.pdf

    I hope to find useful that information.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
    #2279     Dec 20, 2020
    TraDaToR likes this.
  10. Handle123

    Handle123

    Am buyer of live cattle in April at 117 and Hedge
     
    #2280     Jan 18, 2021