08/16/2019 : Short CC U20/Z20 @ 9. - The front of the curve is sinking after July run up. - Good weather and crop conditions in West Africa. -Seasonality.
08/22/2019 : Long ZC N20/U20 @ -1.5 over the last few days. - The crop tour is showing that even if it is better than originally thought, this crop is far from good and an early frost can be devastating. - ZC N20/U20 is lower than ZC N19/U19 at this time last year with the huge crop. - Corn should gain acres next year which should pressure intercrop U. -N/U way oversold on the curve.
@TraDaToR, have I got this right - you bought the July and sold the Sep? If so, I've just checked seasonality charts, and this spread actually falls. It's been a sell on 8 of the 10 last years.
@TraDaToR What is your insight on the "deal" we now have with Japan, where Trump says Japan is going to buy a ton of USA corn? Think it will pop tomorrow morning?
You can check in the https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home I think Japan is already buying most of its corn from the US Same story with Europe saying that it's going to buy US soybean, US soybean was cheaper for Europe at this time It's free speech and "the one" is happy like a child