Pretty bad day for me. 06/28/19 : I shorted some ZC U19-Z19 @ -5.75( No... I didn't catch the spike ). - It got less beaten than other spreads because it is the most sensitive to old crop lower stocks but new crop higher acreage... - USDA just announced a resurvey because these acreages include Prevent plant acres. -Seasonals.
07/01/2019 : Short HE J20/M20 @ -7.8. - Hogs inventory are huge and China is doing everything it can not to source in the US( deals with Brazil...). - The front of the curve is plunging and J/M seems overvalued. - Seasonals.
07/01/2019 : Out @ 3. Probably one of the most painful winning trades of my life. I think USDA killed the bull market until the reality of the resurvey is known.
I am long Cocoa, but huge increase in open interest, thinking reversing might be way to go. Last nine years been in a range, so monies been less that other markets but spreads still working out. This is a market when large open interest shows either topping or bottoming.
07/02/2019 : Long MWK20-2*ZWK20+KWK20 @ -0.25. - ZW is overvalued against pretty much in the world and the higher protein wheats should prevail in the long run. - K undervalued on both MW and KW. - 20 years low for this spread.
Here exist some news from India's severe drought: https://globalnews.ca/news/5424366/chennai-india-drought-satellite/ George.
Seriously ZC U/Z looks like a mega sell to me at these levels. U is not part of the potential failing crop whereas U/Z is overbought compared to Z/H and even N/U in the delivery period. The only potential upside is coming from dumb money piling on corn first expiry...Which can actually be a threat.
07/07/2019 : Short MWU19 / KWU19 @ 93.4. - KW N/U went crazy yesterday and the feed demand of KW should pick up. - HRS conditions increased yesterday and the stocks are plentiful. - Seasonals.