Ag trade ideas

Out @ -15.3. We are getting too close to expiry on feed wheat.

 

Out @ -2.25 on a gut feel that now that oct is expired, Z/H will move freely and possibly go down again.

 

Long EHZ18-2*ZCZ18 @ 581( notional ).

- Profit margin on ethanol crush without DDG is almost null.
- Ethanol/RBOB Gasoline reversing.
- E15 year round.

 

+
Raw sugar is up +36 % in the last month (Brazilian will produce sugar instead of ethanol)

 

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Contango is damn high on ethanol and us stocks are very high

Overall, I think it's a good trade

 

Yes. I know the supply picture of ethanol isn't going my way, but the overall energy bullishness and news are supportive.

 

Short ZW K19/U19 @ -16.75.

- SRW will be in less demand than high protein wheat later in the marketing year.
- Acreage should at least stay the same next year.
- Seasonals

 

Went long a ZM +Z-3*H+3*N-V double butterfly @ -2 . A combo of every under/overvalued parts of the ZM19 curve, which is giving this current awkward shape.

 

Short ZO Z/H @ 8.4.

- The level is almost as high as 2013 when S&D was much tighter.
- It's forming a head and shoulders formation.
- There have been good weather in Canada and the harvest is almost wrapped up. The harvest problems that caused the spike up have alleviated.

 

Out @ 0.12. Not much, especially after commissions.