Ag trade ideas

I still prefer the simple spread( historically the risk is greater on the fly ), but there is a reliable long seasonal trend from early september to late january on the fly.

 

Short ZM Z18/F19 @ 1.
- Really weird shape when the new crop and large supplies brings the inversion(???).
- Soybeans crop is getting bigger and crush is at all time high.
- Seasonal window.

 

Out @ 38.5. It was forming a double bottom so I prefered to get out. Still a positive trade.

 

Out @ 0.5. 2 ticks gain.

 

What is going on in Hogs Z Butterfly?

 

I don't know, but I have been following it for sure

 

trade talks with China? African Swine fever? Didn't find a satisfactory explanation.

https://www.grainews.ca/daily/u-s-livestock-cme-lean-hogs-sag-on-uncertainty-over-trade-talks

 

All I can do is go long/hedged oinks on deep retracements, eventually go up. Long bias since 2016, dump some when hits target, but staying in for long pull or stopped out at breakeven. Maybe not enough people ate ribs over the summer, too much supply in front months?

 

Just got out @ -13.5. Intercrop spreads is getting flat so there is no anomaly on the curve anymore. Shitty trade.

 

Went long @ -4.3.

-Low level compared to the last 20 years but not further back.
-Z/G seems to be bottoming.