Ag trade ideas

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraDaToR, Aug 24, 2014.

  1. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I have never used trend-following strategies on intra or intermarket spreads but I know a lot of people are. Actually sometimes my seasonal trades are in fact trend-following. We enter for different reasons but we all end up with the same trades...
     
    #1891     Aug 3, 2018
  2. I got it, thank you TraDaTor and as a seasoned trader do you have an idea on how large that spread between the two prices of different crops can be (I mean in the past few years) ?
     
    #1892     Aug 3, 2018
  3. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    Backwardation : 160( 2008 )
    Contango : -36(2011 )
     
    #1893     Aug 3, 2018
    ErnstAugust likes this.
  4. Ouch ! Backwardation was frightening then. Useful to know that.
     
    #1894     Aug 3, 2018
  5. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    It was the year of the food riots. Minneapolis Wheat spreads between March and May went backwardated +700( and it wasn't intercrop ). The outright market was opening limit up for 2 weeks or so. Plenty of people were caught short and had to exit their positions using synthetics via options.
     
    #1895     Aug 3, 2018
  6. Cant think at which IV. Does it make you to pay some protection using far OTM options when dealing a spread on futures ?
     
    #1896     Aug 3, 2018
  7. When wheat price are high, the mean reversion is done through the inter-harvest period (May to July).
    Being short May, Long Jul is highly correlated to short outright. (it's also very similar of shorting a call...)

    I advised not to be short this spread currently and not to trade that without understanding inter-harvest.
     
    #1897     Aug 3, 2018
    ErnstAugust likes this.
  8. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I am not sure what you mean. Do you mean far OTM calendar spread options?
     
    #1898     Aug 3, 2018
  9. I meant far OTM puts for the long leg and far OTM calls for the short one (it could be vertical spreads).
     
    #1899     Aug 3, 2018
  10. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    No. I don't use such protections. For instruments that usually explode when they invert( Robusta ), I put a hard stop on the calendar spread. By the way, you can trade calendar spread options on CBOT, some are fairly liquid I think.
     
    #1900     Aug 3, 2018