I’m not bailing from my outright cocoa longs until it hits the 2800 area. GBP is not weak and that’s definitely aiding this move. As far as wheat goes. I bailed from my KE long earlier today (in the nick of time apparently). To anyone else holding wheat I think it’s gunning for that gap.
Yes and 480 in KC wheat. I could see it stomping through that gap, collecting liquidity as longs bail, and then making a move up again. It’s just what markets do.
What do you think about KW/W, guys? I am still holding half my position. There will be precipitations tomorrow in KS/OK but at the same time, the spread level isn't really high hystorically for a drought stressed crop.
@TraDaToR fundamentals i'll leave the others to talk about but just on the price action i tend to agree with @i960 and that does not dissuade me from staying long for now. I assume that opportunistic traders/floor specialists/smaller funds make the most use of stop levels and so I accept there's going to be wash around the support / resistance levels as they try to run through, trip them off and make a bit more on the momentum. bigger picture for me is that the price move through the 200 day was initially a very strong signal, the drop back through didn't look good but if it's going to be a big move i'm going to expect that. so taking all that into account, I'd say it depends on what your stop/target is and your existing pnl on the trade. i wouldn't endanger overall pnl for the trade to hold on to it but if it's <30% profit you're risking and the target is significantly higher e.g. 550+ then paying 20pts to have a look on 30% of your profit doesn't seem like a bad risk reward to me, especially if there's no major (top tier) supply data or USD events to be published in the next few days/week. weather is only going to change gradually (in a negative way), there's clearly some significant interest to go long from the volume on the 200 DMA pop. anyway clearly i'm biased being long but yeah there's definitely an expectation price could drop down 15-20 cents before you know whether it's a genuine long signal. is that worth it? depends on your own pnl equation.
Out @ 25.75 the other half. Average out @ 30. Entered @ 4. Wasn't the worst trade but should have liquidated the last half earlier.