Long ZLK18@ 32.42. -Ridiculously low oil share. -Funds net short. -Soy complex bullishness can't leave oil behind.
Thanks that's very helpful to give the price action some context. The price is now sitting just below the 40 day moving average so I'm just going to sit and watch it for now
I like the rejection of the June 2017 low around 32 on soybean oil however the sequence of lower highs and the lows since November are too much for me to get on board at the moment. I would like to see a move through 33 either in a steady sequence of rising price action or a large bullish candle on decent volume. The big doji candle posted on Thursday is in an interesting location but puts more questions out there for me than answers so I'm just going to sit and watch on this one until the price action gives me more confidence. @TraDaToR what's your target on this one? or just take it off when you feel it's caught up / run its course?
Cocoa makes a new high, next stop CAPITOL CITY! Apologies for the Simpsons reference in the title. Yesterday's moved through the resistance created by the previous High was a very encouraging sign and now leaves a bit of open space in front of the price. I had to go back to a monthly chart to see what the next likely point of resistance might be and the one that stands out is 2667 created by the series of low points at the start of 2015 as well as the high made in August 2012 which was subsequently rejected in September 2012. The 50% to 61.8% retracement of the drop that occurred throughout 2016 from around 3424 down to 1769 halfway through 2017 would be in the region of 2600 to 2800. So for now it looks like the need to earn Target should be just above 2600. In terms of adding to the trade I'll be looking to add again shortly on this break and then wait to see a pullback of some kind followed by some stabilization before adding again.
My target should be around 34. I thought about cocoa as well but there was some little things I didn't like, namely the fact that NY cocoa is already expensive compared to London and the specs position.
Got stopped today @ 1.471. Trump's approval to RIN price caps ruined this good trade. Still a winner though.
good stuff. I will also head to the exit. small loss but better out than out of business. re: the cocoa relative prices: Yeah I am blind to that sort of stuff. I realised a while ago i am not good at making relative / comparative judgements on fundamental news or data - example is the fact the spread is historically wide probably either better value in London or due for a pullback in NY. Too many times i picked the wrong thing to prioritise and it undermined my confidence in decision making, so I just stopped doing it. I know I can spot good price action that turns into a +5 to 10% move in the underlying maybe 40-60% of the time and then the rest for me is just trying to maximise those winners by adding to the initial position to skew the payoffs in my favour. Cocoa has obviously been a good one but my sugar call went nowhere. Also found i got blindsided too many times by not being across the economic events or otherwise. So don't really pay attention to the day to day factors now, have wider stops and focus on the rough bigger picture dynamics (commodities historically cheap, stocks expensive, lots of free money in the system, inflationary backdrop, demographic support etc etc.) Just what works for me. Also why I post on the forum, keep myself accountable and see if what I write makes sense once I write it. Plus I get a few trade ideas by checking the forum / learn stuff.